Embedded Files
Quoted by Al Arabiya via AFP regarding North Korea's disdain for negotiations (link):
"Kim's remarks demonstrate no interest in engaging with the incoming Yoon administration in South Korea or restarting denuclearization talks with the United States," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Financial Times regarding the timing of North Korea's next nuclear test, once the tunnels and device are ready (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that "if the Kim regime wants to be provocative, it could test soon after South Korea's new president takes office [on May 10] and before President Biden's trip to Asia later in the month. But in order to avoid offending Pyongyang's benefactors in Beijing, the next test will likely avoid dates close to China's five-yearly Communist party Congress later in the year."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding DPRK nuclear doctrine (link):
"Kim said that he could order the use of nuclear weapons to protect the 'fundamental interests' of North Korea. This sounds like an elastic term that Pyongyang can adjust the meaning of according to the situation, similar to how it blames the diplomatic deadlock on the 'hostile policies' of other countries," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University. "Such an ambiguous and potentially escalatory nuclear doctrine should not only worry Seoul, Tokyo and Washington but Beijing as well."
Quoted in the Independent regarding Pyongyang parading weapons largely for domestic political reasons (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said North Korea's threats could drive the US closer with its allies Japan and South Korea. "During this military display, representatives of president-elect Yoon were in Japan for policy consultations and representatives of the Biden administration were in South Korea to coordinate an early summit," he noted. "The Kim regime is probably trying to increase national pride and domestic legitimacy with propaganda about state, party and military accomplishments on different occasions," he added.
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding the geopolitical context of the DPRK raising tensions in East Asia (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said that while Pyongyang typically seeks to drive wedges between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, Kim's latest moves could end up having the opposite effect. "North Korea's threats, on top of Russia and China's challenges to the international order, may inadvertently drive U.S. allies closer together," he said.
Quoted in the Times of India via AFP regarding Kim Jong-un sending a letter before Moon completes his term in office (link):
Pyongyang's "military threats towards Seoul and frequent rejection of engagement efforts reflect poorly on trust and prospects for cooperation between the two Koreas," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. But "Pyongyang at least needed to acknowledge the end of Moon's presidency," he added, and that the North seems to be "using the occasion to express expectations that Yoon will inherit inter- Korean agreements."
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Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding North Korea's domestic politics of maintaining regime legitimacy (link):
"While preparations are underway for a military parade in Pyongyang on April 25 to mark the army's anniversary, Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, says that "Kim is also attempting to build national pride and legitimacy [with propaganda about] a society that is not only united, but also modern and happy."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Pyongyang claiming to test a nuclear-capable short-range missile (link):
"North Korea is trying to deploy not only long-range nuclear missiles aimed at American cities but also tactical nuclear weapons to threaten Seoul and U.S. bases in Asia," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Pyongyang's purposes likely exceed deterrence and regime survival. Like Russia employs the fear it could use tactical nukes, North Korea may want such weapons for political coercion, battlefield escalation and limiting the willingness of other countries to intervene in a conflict."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding Pyongyang's military competition with Seoul (link):
"More than marking North Korean holidays, challenging South Korea's incoming president, or taking advantage of the war in Ukraine, the reason the Kim regime further develops missiles and nuclear weapons is to win what it perceives as an arms race on the Korean Peninsula," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "South Korea's military is backed by a much larger and technologically sophisticated economy, as well as a superpower ally."
Quoted in the Los Angeles Times via AP regarding North Korea planning more tests (link):
"Kim Jong Un's stated goal of deploying tactical nuclear weapons, Kim Yo Jong's recent threats toward Seoul and satellite imagery of tunneling activity at Punggye-ri all point to an upcoming nuclear test," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Additional missile launches are also expected for honing weapons delivery systems."
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times via AFP regarding North Korea's 'Day of the Sun' celebrations (link):
"It was a calculated decision to highlight new apartments and citizens with smartphones taking pictures of flowers, said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The Kim regime needs more sources of national pride and legitimacy than military parades," he said. "So the public commemorations around its founder's birthday tried to portray an economy that is not only resilient but growing."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding North Korea not showcasing nuclear- capable missiles on its April 15 holiday (link):
"Pyongyang implementing the threat to end its long-range missile test moratorium means we are now in a higher-stakes provocation cycle," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "North Korea is signaling that it will pursue its proclaimed self-defense with less self-restraint. The Kim regime will likely try to blackmail its neighbors with even more destabilizing actions. South Korea's missile tests in immediate response demonstrate its military readiness and defense capability. Those should help deter a North Korean attack but won't prevent further provocations by Pyongyang. The incoming Yoon administration is inheriting an arms race on the Korean Peninsula."
Quoted in the International Business Times via AFP regarding South Korea's alliance with the United States providing security better than developing nuclear weapons (link):
[Doubling down on extended deterrence] would be "far less politically complicating, economically costly, and regionally destabilising than nuclear proliferation", said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University. "The lesson of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not to go nuclear but rather to strengthen the kind of defense alliances that Ukraine wanted but couldn't obtain," he added.
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Kim Jong-un's sister issuing threats toward South Korea (link):
"Kim Yo Jong's remarks foreshadow another significant military test," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Similar to how Moscow and Beijing try to gaslight the world that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is somehow the fault of NATO, Pyongyang will blame its nuclear and missile advancements on the U.S.-South Korea alliance."
Quoted in the Australian via AFP regarding North Korea's claim to have tested a Hwasong-17 when it may have actually fired a smaller ICBM (link):
"Not only does the Kim regime derive pride and legitimacy from its nuclear and missile programs, it portrays building military strength against external threats as moral justification for domestic economic suffering," said Leif- Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. The launch as portrayed in state-controlled media has significant "propaganda value" for the Kim regime, he added.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (link):
"Pyongyang implementing the threat to end its long-range missile test moratorium means we are now in a higher-stakes provocation cycle," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "North Korea is signaling that it will pursue its proclaimed self-defense with less self-restraint. The Kim regime will likely try to blackmail its neighbors with even more destabilizing actions. South Korea's missile tests in immediate response demonstrate its military readiness and defense capability. Those should help deter a North Korean attack but won't prevent further provocations by Pyongyang. The incoming Yoon administration is inheriting an arms race on the Korean Peninsula."
Quoted in the Los Angeles Times via AP regarding North Korea's first ICBM test since 2017 (link):
"Despite economic challenges and technical setbacks, the Kim regime is determined to advance its missile capabilities," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha Womans University. "It would be a mistake for international policymakers to think the North Korean missile threat can be put on the back burner while the world deals with the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
Quoted by CNN regarding Pyongyang challenging Asia's regional security order (link):
"North Korea refuses to be ignored and may be trying to take advantage of global preoccupation with the war in Ukraine to force a fait accompli on its status as a nuclear weapons state," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "North Korea is nowhere near initiating aggression on the scale of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But Pyongyang's ambitions likewise exceed self-defense as it wants to overturn the postwar security order in Asia," added Easley.
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Quoted by the BBC regarding South Korea's response to North Korea's continued missile development (link):
"The Kim regime is determined not only to keep South Korea hostage to military threats that can evade Seoul's missile defences and pre-emptive strike capabilities, but also aims to expand its nuclear reach over the American homeland to deter Washington from coming to the defence of US allies. The incoming Yoon administration in South Korea can be expected to increase defence exercises with the United States and security co- operation with Japan."
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding the domestic dimension of North Korea's missile tests (link):
Associate professor of international studies Leif-Eric Easley at Ewha Womans University said Pyongyang attaches "political legitimacy to developing missiles." He noted that North Korea had kept mum about a failed missile launch last week, but "likely wanted a major success before upcoming political anniversaries in April."
Quoted by Channel News Asia via AFP regarding North Korea breaking its long-range missile test moratorium (link):
With its ICBM launch this week, North Korea has abandoned "self-restraint on missile tests," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The Kim regime now expects Washington to accept the intolerable or pay Pyongyang to reimpose a long-range testing freeze."
Quoted in the Bangkok Post via AFP regarding the failure of North Korea's most recent ballistic missile test (link):
"The Kim regime wants to demonstrate new technical achievements around the 110th birth anniversary of its founder, Kim Il-sung," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "If the most recent missile launch was indeed a failure, North Korea will almost certainly continue to test," he added.
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding how missile tests are largely about improving military capabilities but Pyongyang also has other motivations (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said that while a failed missile test would usually be followed by a monthslong scientific study so engineers could incorporate lessons before the next test, the Kim regime also has a domestic political agenda and desire to demonstrate strength internationally. "So North Korea will likely conduct another test, although not necessarily with the same missile, ahead of its political anniversaries in April and the inauguration of South Korea's next president in May," he said.
Quoted by Radio France Internationale via AFP regarding North Korea's apparent preparations for its first ICBM test since 2017 (link):
North Korea paused its tests to "make room for diplomacy and avoid further sanctions," but always kept working on diversifying its missiles, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. Eventually, "in order to ensure accuracy and reentry capability, such weapons need to be tested," he said.
Quoted in the Telegraph regarding relevance of the war in Ukraine to dealing with North Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said: "The Kim regime is watching the situation in Ukraine, but it isn't historically accurate to draw negative lessons from Kyiv 'giving up nukes' because it didn't actually have operational control of Soviet nuclear weapons. "In fact, the US substantially helped Ukraine and Russia with their 'loose nukes' problem. But that won't prevent Pyongyang from adding Ukraine to its list of excuses to avoid denuclearisation."
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Quoted in Nikkei regarding how South Korea and Japan's sanctions enforcement against Russia can send a signal to Pyongyang (link):
"The more that Seoul and Tokyo do to hold Moscow accountable, the more North Korea will be deterred from nuclear adventurism," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding why North Korea broadcasts details of some tests despite concealing many of its military capabilities (link):
North Korea's "recent reports on tests of reconnaissance satellite components practically advertise a forthcoming long-range missile firing as a space launch," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The Kim regime may be betting that it can easily get away with such violations of U.N. sanctions, and by doing so publicly, normalize its military activities as just another country keeping up with the neighbors in order to defend itself."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding how North Korea is not just looking for attention (link):
"The Kim Jong Un regime may be unhappy with Washington coordinating global efforts against Russian aggression in Ukraine and disappointed with Seoul's inward focus ahead of the South Korean presidential election," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "But North Korea does not simply test missiles for international attention. Pyongyang's current priorities are military modernization and domestic politics," Easley added.
Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times via Reuters regarding the progression of Pyongyang's launch schedule (link):
"North Korea may be preparing a 'satellite launch' around the Kim Il Sung birth anniversary on April 15 and before South Korea conducts another satellite test of its own," said Professor Leif-Eric Easley from Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Japan Times regarding the external rhetoric of the Kim regime (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said, "when the Kim regime faces international criticism for violating U.N. Security Council resolutions, it will likely complain about 'double standards' and threaten to further erode its nuclear and long-range missile test moratorium."
Quoted by CNN regarding North Korean provocations after Russia invaded Ukraine (link):
"North Korea is not going to do anyone the favor of staying quiet while the world deals with Russia's aggression against Ukraine," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul, said following Sunday's test.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding the U.S. staying engaged in Asia despite the war in Ukraine (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the Biden administration needs to show that it maintains a strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific region, including by responding sternly to Pyongyang's provocations.
Quoted in the South China Morning Post via AFP regarding North Korea's latest test launch (link):
North Korea is reeling economically from biting sanctions over its weapons programs and a lengthy coronavirus blockade, but continuing its "ambitious schedule of military modernisation" is a top priority, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted by CNBC via Reuters regarding Pyongyang's missile politics (link):
The Kim regime's strength and legitimacy have become tied to testing ever-better missiles, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding the Kim regime's pattern of weapons development (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the launch was in line with Kim's earlier announcements that the regime would continue to refine its weapons.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's seventh missile test of January 2022 (link):
"North Korea is launching a frenzy of missiles before the start of the Beijing Olympics, mostly as military modernization efforts," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted by CNN regarding the international message behind Pyongyang's provocations (link):
"By threatening to destabilize Asia while global resources are stretched thin elsewhere, Pyongyang is demanding the world pay it to act like a 'responsible nuclear power,'" said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, South Korea. "For better and for worse, Biden is showing no fire and no fury."
Quoted by Yonhap regarding the domestic politics of North Korean demonstrations of military strength (link):
"Pyongyang also wants to boost national pride as it gears up to celebrate political anniversaries in the context of economic struggles," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Quoted in the Globe and Mail via Reuters regarding Pyongyang's politics of pride and deterrence (link):
The tests appear aimed at modernizing North Korea's military, bolstering national pride ahead of several major North Korean holidays, and sending a message of strength as the country grapples with economic crises caused by sanctions and COVID-19 lockdowns, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "The Kim regime hears external discussions of its domestic weaknesses and sees South Korea's growing strength. So it wants to remind Washington and Seoul that trying to topple it would be too costly."
Quoted by CNN regarding North Korea's sixth missile test of January 2022 (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said "certain North Korean tests aim to develop new capabilities, especially for evading missile defenses. Other launches are intended to demonstrate the readiness and versatility of missile forces that North Korea has already deployed."
Quoted in the Jakarta Post via AFP regarding Pyongyang's prioritization of military modernization (link):
"The Kim regime is developing an impressive diversity of offensive weapons despite limited resources and serious economic challenges," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Seoul's Ewha University.
Quoted in the South China Morning Post via Reuters regarding North Korean motivations for missile tests (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an international affairs professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said "some observers have suggested that the Kim regime's frequent launches are a cry for attention, but Pyongyang is running hard in what it perceives as an arms race with Seoul."
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Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding China and Russia obstructing even minor strengthening of sanctions on North Korea (link):
"That Pyongyang has violated resolutions the Security Council unanimously approved is not just a matter of American opinion or South Korean intelligence," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "North Korean state media has repeatedly provided details and photos of unlawful missile launches and issued threats of future nuclear and long-range missile tests. Beijing and Moscow are allowing Pyongyang to flout international law, essentially welcoming further provocations."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korea's lack of interest in denuclearization talks (link):
For the moment, Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said that Pyongyang appears too concerned about the risks of COVID-19 to engage in negotiations with the U.S. "But when they do come looking for concessions, the fundamental obstacle for denuclearization talks remains that the Kim regime is unwilling to denuclearize," Easley said.
Quoted in the Chosun Ilbo regarding North Korea's rush to test missiles before the Beijing Olympics (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said "Pyongyang should be relatively restrained in terms of provocations during the Olympics. So to the extent the North Koreans have missiles to test for improving military capabilities and sending signals before South Korea's presidential election on March 9, they should probably do that before Feb. 4."
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding North Korea launching missiles from the vicinity of Pyongyang airport (link):
North Korean expert Leif-Eric Easley said, "considering its strategic relationship with China, the North Korean leadership is likely getting its early 2022 military exercises and missile tests out of the way before the Beijing Olympics. The timing also suggests that North Korea does not wish to stay quiet ahead of South Korea's presidential election or appear on life support as China sends aid over the border."
Quoted in the Times of India via AFP regarding North Korea opening its border to rail traffic for the first time since the start of the pandemic (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said after Friday's test that Pyongyang "appears to be signaling it will not be ignored and will respond to pressure with pressure."
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Quoted by the BBC regarding North Korea's window for testing missiles (link):
North Korean expert Leif-Eric Easley said, "considering its strategic relationship with China, the North Korean leadership is likely getting its early 2022 military exercises and missile tests out of the way before the Beijing Olympics. The timing also suggests that North Korea does not wish to stay quiet ahead of South Korea's presidential election or appear on life support as China sends aid over the border."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding the political aims of North Korean missile tests, in addition to improving military capabilities (link):
"North Korea is suffering economically but its regime's ideology demands not showing weakness. Kim's external strategy is to get the world to accept Pyongyang as a nuclear power and pay it for abstaining from provocations," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "So this series of missile tests serves both domestic political and foreign policy purposes."
Quoted by CNN regarding North Korea firing rail-based missiles (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said after Friday's test that Pyongyang "appears to be signaling it will not be ignored and will respond to pressure with pressure."
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Quoted in the Los Angeles Times via AP regarding North Korea's third missile test to start 2022 (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said, "North Korea is trying to lay a trap for the Biden administration. It has queued up missiles that it wants to test anyway and is responding to U.S. pressure with additional provocations in an effort to extort concessions."
Quoted in the Independent regarding the Kim regime's foreign policy rhetoric (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said: "North Korea claims its missile tests are efforts at self-defence, are not destabilising, and should not be targeted by economic sanctions. But Pyongyang's rhetoric is dubious because it projects onto other countries what it is actually guilty of: threats to national sovereignty, challenges to regional stability, and violations of international law."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding North Korea's pattern of provocations (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said Pyongyang was following a familiar playbook. "North Korea should be offered humanitarian assistance once it is willing to diplomatically reengage. But its threats should not be rewarded with international recognition or sanctions relief."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding coordinating policies on North Korea (link):
"Pyongyang has little room for escalation because of its internal challenges and its need for restraint during the Beijing Olympics given heavy reliance on China," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "So Washington and its allies should call the Kim regime's bluff by increasing U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation and strengthening enforcement of U.N. Security Council resolutions."
Quoted by CNN regarding the politics of North Korea's claimed hypersonic weapon (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said "state media hyped the latest test, personally supervised by Kim Jong-un, as 'final verification' of a new military capability. This looks like classic North Korean box checking, claiming success of an agenda item from Kim's earlier speech in an attempt to bolster political legitimacy and increase diplomatic pressure."
Quoted by VOA regarding Kim Jong-un returning to field guidance of missile launches (link):
"After a long absence from attending missile tests, Kim supervising a launch elevates its political significance," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "North Korea has appeared to exaggerate its hypersonic technology for political reasons, including national pride and signaling a determination to defeat the missile defense systems of other countries."
Quoted in the Australian via AFP regarding implications of Pyongyang's hypersonic weapons development (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the weapon was not ready for deployment. "Nonetheless, Pyongyang's ability to threaten its neighbours continues to grow."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding policy responses to North Korean provocations (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said [North Korea's continued tests are] "underlining the urgency of U.S.-South Korea- Japan cooperation on missile defense and the need for greater accountability in China and Russia's enforcement of UN sanctions."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's second major missile launch of 2022 (link):
"Even with North Korea's pandemic border lockdowns restricting trade and diplomacy, Pyongyang is determined to run an arms race against Seoul and deny Washington the luxury of focusing on Russia and China," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the South China Morning Post via Reuters regarding North Korean intensions behind continued missile tests (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha University said North Korea is attempting to use repeated tests to normalise its missile capabilities, portraying itself as a country engaged in incremental improvements for self-defence. "At the same time, Pyongyang is challenging international sanctions, testing what it can get away with while the United Nations Security Council remains divided," he said.
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Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding North Korea's first missile test of 2022 (link):
"Despite a very difficult economic situation, including food shortages under the country's self-imposed pandemic isolation, North Korea continues to develop its offensive military capabilities," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding the Kim regime's prioritization of military modernization (link):
"Rather than expressing willingness for denuclearization talks or interest in an end-of-war declaration, North Korea is signaling that neither the omicron variant nor domestic food shortages will stop its aggressive missile development," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea's lack of reforms at the 4th Plenary of the Workers' Party 8th Central Committee (link):
"Kim Jong-un was never going to be a reformer by Western standards," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "He prioritizes his family interests above national security, prosperity and the rule of law, to say nothing of human rights."
Quoted in the JoongAng Daily regarding an unauthorized crossing of the demilitarized zone from South to North Korea (link):
"The person who crossed the DMZ is more likely to be a re-defector than a spy, and is unlikely to be infected with the coronavirus," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "But their life is in peril because of North Korea's pandemic protocols."
Quoted by Radio France Internationale via AFP regarding North Korean priorities at the start of 2022 (link):
"The pandemic continues to constrain North Korea's diplomacy, decimate its economy, and make border controls the top security issue," said Leif- Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea looking back and looking forward, 10 years after the death of Kim Jong-il (link):
"North Korea marked the 10-year memorial of Kim Jong Il with public ceremonies and state propaganda. More significant will be Kim Jong Un's attempt, after a decade in power, to map out a credible path for post- pandemic diplomacy and economic recovery," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding Kim Jong-un facing the dictator's dilemma after Covid (link):
According to Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha Womans University, the Kim regime has managed to stay in power for so long by "demonizing the United States, belittling Seoul, and touting national self-reliance." "But Trump's meetings with Kim contradicted the American threat theory, South Korea is more successful than ever, and Pyongyang is increasingly dependent on China. What little prosperity the North Korean people have tasted correlated with international trade, and that allowed more information to get inside the country. After the pandemic abates, the dictator's dilemma of how to pursue economic growth while maintaining political control is likely to intensify for Kim."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding Pyongyang marking one decade under Kim Jong-un (link):
"When Kim Jong Un came to power, his greatest threats were internal, but in 10 years he has managed to dramatically consolidate control," said Leif- Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The North Korean economy, however, is far worse off because Kim underestimated international resolve to maintain sanctions as long as he refuses to denuclearize, and he overestimated domestic resources while enacting the world's harshest self-imposed pandemic isolation."
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding prospects for North Korean diplomacy after the U.S. Global Posture Review (link):
"The U.S. upgrading rotational deployments to permanently stationing an Apache helicopter unit and artillery brigade headquarters in South Korea signals to Pyongyang that Washington is committed to its ally's defense," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said. "This [move] also reminds China that Seoul is supportive of a robust U.S. force posture in Asia that contributes to regional security and stability. The Biden and Moon administrations want to resume dialogue with Pyongyang and cooperate with Beijing on North Korea, but the Kim regime is unwilling to even engage regarding humanitarian assistance, much less denuclearization talks," Easley added.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Kim Jong-un, after a long absence from public view, appearing at a North Korean border town near China (link):
"Claiming the success of Samjiyon's development is politically important at this time because the Mount Paekdu region is central to North Korean mythology and the embellished story of the previous leader's birth," as Kim may soon commemorate 10 years since his father's death, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding North Korea's receptiveness to an end- of-war declaration (link):
"The Moon administration is drumming up international support for an end- of-war declaration to show diplomatic effort to Pyongyang," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "[The] Kim regime prioritizes sanctions relief over reconciliation with South Korea [and] recent North Korean reactions to Seoul's proposals range from unresponsiveness to spite," Easley said. He pointed to the unrealistic demands both Kim Yo Jong and Pyongyang's U.N. ambassador, Kim Song, have made: curtailing U.S.-South Korea defense cooperation and dismantlement of the United Nations Command that enforces the Korean War armistice.
Quoted in USA Today via AP regarding North Korea's longstanding ambitions for an SLBM capability (link):
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is "developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles because he wants a more survivable nuclear deterrent able to blackmail his neighbors and the United States," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Australian via AFP regarding the politics behind North Korean missile tests (link):
"North Korea's SLBM is probably far from being operationally deployed with a nuclear warhead, but Kim cannot politically afford appearing to fall behind in a regional arms race," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Asia Times regarding how North Korean capabilities need to be studied rather than assumed (link):
"North Korea appears to have tested a new mini-SLBM, but its propaganda about military capabilities should not be taken at face value," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Further analysis is needed to avoid underestimating or exaggerating Pyongyang's ability to launch missiles from a submarine, miniaturize warheads and accurately guide them to a target."
Quoted in Nikkei regarding North Korea's increasingly flagrant violations of UN Security Council Resolutions with ballistic missile tests (link):
"North Korea appears to have tested a new mini-SLBM, but its propaganda about military capabilities should not be taken at face value," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Further analysis is needed to avoid underestimating or exaggerating Pyongyang's ability to launch missiles from a submarine, miniaturize warheads and accurately guide them to a target."
Quoted by ABC News regarding the timing of North Korea's SLBM test (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that although the North Korean missile launch timing is largely driven by a technical schedule for when tests are ready and useful, there's also a political factor. "Pyongyang is celebrating the ruling party's founding and looking to boost national morale after harsh pandemic lockdowns. And the Kim regime likely wants to one-up South Korean missile tests, at least in Pyongyang's propaganda."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding the Kim regime's motivation for demonstrating the capability of launching a missile from a submarine (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said "there's also an element of Pyongyang racing to keep up with Seoul as South Korea has recently tested an SLBM of its own and is planning an ambitious space launch this week," Easley noted.
Quoted in the Guardian via Reuters regarding Pyongyang prioritizing weapons development (link):
Despite struggling economically under a self-imposed pandemic lockdown, North Korea has continued breakneck development of missiles and expanded nuclear activity, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Now that the Kim regime is gradually loosening border restrictions for limited external engagement, it is simultaneously testing missiles to advance its military modernization," he said.
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Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding North Korea's series of missile tests (link):
"North Korea is trying to coerce the world into accepting its violations of U.N. Security Council Resolutions as if they are normal acts of self- defense," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "This is part of the Kim regime's efforts to achieve de facto international recognition as a nuclear power and receive concessions just for resuming contact."
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Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korean defiance of international law set by the United Nations Security Council (link):
"North Korea isn't interested in denuclearization talks to receive benefits for coming into compliance with U.N. resolutions," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "It seeks to rewrite the rules and be compensated for restraint as a nuclear power."
Quoted in the Independent regarding Pyongyang's strategy behind weapons development (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul, suggests that North Korea's weapons are not merely for survival or a bargaining chip, they are for blackmailing and driving a wedge between Washington and Seoul. "The Kim regime doesn't want a peace declaration, it wants South Korean capitulation. Paying Pyongyang to talk would reinforce its strategy. It needs to face greater costs in the form of sanctions enforcement and regional missile defence cooperation to be convinced of the need to negotiate."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister being appointed to the State Affairs Commission (link):
"Kim Yo Jong's promotion likely reflects her brother's assessment that she is effectively performing her role as international spokesperson for the regime," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Seoul's Ewha University.
Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding why German unification does not offer a model for North and South Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international relations at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, [said that for the two Koreas,] unification remains "a long-term prospect." "While Pyongyang refuses to engage on the many inter-Korean projects that Seoul proposes, [Unification Minister] Lee can seek support and advice from international partners," he said. "One of the lessons from the German experience is that historical change can come quickly and unexpectedly, so advance coordination and preparation are essential. But Europeans know that German unification cannot provide a model. Compared to East Germany, North Korea has been isolated for a longer duration, is more threatening with nuclear weapons and missiles, suffers greater economic mismanagement and commits worse human rights violations." Moreover, he added, the influence of the rising power of China is "a more complicating factor than Russia was for Germany. At the end of the Cold War, Moscow could be paid to respect German preferences. Beijing is more powerful today and determined to exercise its interests over the Korean Peninsula."
Quoted by CNN regarding the threat involved in North Korea claiming to have tested a hypersonic missile (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Pyongyang's hypersonic missile may not need to be as accurate as those potentially deployed by other nations. "If Pyongyang manages to fit a nuclear warhead on even a rudimentary hypersonic, it would be a dangerous weapon because it wouldn't have to be extremely accurate to threaten the nearby metropolis of Seoul," he said.
Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding motivations behind North Korea's recent tests (link):
Associate professor of international studies Leif-Eric Easley at Ewha Womans University said North Korea was "focusing on capabilities for defeating missile defences while waging a techno-nationalist arms race with South Korea. "However, Pyongyang might be willing to take the low- cost and easily reversible step of restarting regular communications with Seoul," he added.
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding Pyongyang's combination of missile launches and mixed messages toward South Korea (link):
According to Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, Kim is "probing what benefits can be extracted at the 11th hour of the Moon administration." He added that the re-establishment – or rather, rebuilding – of an inter-Korean liaison office in the North Korean border town of Kaesong, just north of the DMZ, could provide a conduit for humanitarian assistance. "Another inter-Korean summit before Moon leaves office [could give justification for his party's legislative majority to ratify the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration in an attempt to] lock the next administration into continuing pro-engagement policies," Easley said.
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Quoted in the Independent regarding North Korean rhetoric against international accountability (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the Kim regime has increasingly complained about what it calls international hypocrisy. "Pyongyang maintains its missile tests are not provocations but steps for strengthening its 'war deterrent.' It refuses to recognise the legitimacy of UN Security Council resolutions, alleges the United States often makes more provocative military moves and accuses Seoul of breaking inter-Korean agreements," he said.
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Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding North Korea claiming to test a hypersonic missile (link):
"Because of their speed and varied trajectories, hypersonic missiles are hard to detect, track and defend against," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said. "Advancements in fueling are intended to allow Pyongyang to fire the missiles quickly, making them more difficult for other countries to preemptively target and destroy before launch. [However,] it is unlikely that North Korea has reliably developed all the technologies its propaganda claims."
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Quoted in the Diplomat regarding North Korean efforts to manipulate the South (link):
"Kim Yo Jong may be laying a trap by offering dialogue conditioned on Seoul not criticizing what she portrays as Pyongyang's righteous self- defense measures," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. North Korea might conduct a provocative military test around October 10, the 76th anniversary of the Workers' Party. Easley pointed out that the North's possible missile test or military activities next month could pose a dilemma for the South. "If Seoul remains silent, that could somewhat normalize the Kim regime's nuclear and missile development and cause friction in the alliance with the United States. On the other hand, if Seoul criticizes North Korea's next provocation, Pyongyang would again cut communications and blame the South for strained inter-Korean relations," Easley said.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's indifference to South Korean peace overtures (link):
"Even while under a pandemic lockdown, North Korea continues to modernize its military, including nuclear weapons and various means of delivering them," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha, who sees little room for Moon to advance his peace agenda. "The Biden administration has repeatedly offered dialogue and humanitarian engagement, but the Kim regime appears to want sanctions relief and de facto nuclear recognition in exchange for averting a crisis."
Quoted in the Guardian regarding North Korea's further nuclearization while its neighbors impose few costs (link):
"Despite the arms buildup on both sides of the peninsula, the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, hopes to make a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea during his final months in office," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The Biden administration wants to avoid escalation while maintaining the goal of denuclearisation. Japan is about to change prime ministers. And China talks up regional stability while blame-shifting toward Washington and Seoul. As a result, the Kim regime likely believes it can get away with pushing the nuclear envelope."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding Kim Yo-jong's preconditions for improving relations with South Korea (link):
"Even while under a pandemic lockdown, North Korea continues to modernize its military, including nuclear weapons and various means of delivering them," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha, who sees little room for Moon to advance his peace agenda. "The Biden administration has repeatedly offered dialogue and humanitarian engagement, but the Kim regime appears to want sanctions relief and de facto nuclear recognition in exchange for averting a crisis."
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's strategy behind testing missiles (link):
Kim's resumed testing activities are largely meant "for developing military capabilities, but can also be attempts at shoring up domestic unity," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang could launch a provocation even when in desperate economic need because it wants to hide its weaknesses and extract external concessions. For upgrading weapons capabilities, next in the testing queue may not be a nuclear device or ICBM but a submarine- based system," Easley said.
Quoted in the Toronto Star regarding North Korea applying pressure on South Korea and the United States (link):
"Pyongyang is rhetorically putting the burden for strained ties on Seoul and responsibility for restarting diplomacy on Washington," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the New York Times regarding the danger of under-reacting to North Korea (link):
"Rather than strengthen sanctions and military exercises, the allies have emphasized a willingness for dialogue and humanitarian cooperation," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The problem with less than robust responses to North Korea's tests is that deterrence can be eroded while Pyongyang advances its capabilities and normalizes its provocations."
Quoted in the Los Angeles Times via AP regarding Pyongyang's motivations for testing missiles (link):
"North Korea is implementing a schedule of missile development that was planned before [President] Biden came to office. That schedule can be adjusted for political reasons but is primarily driven by security strategy and technical factors," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the South China Morning Post regarding options for responding to North Korea's provocations (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul who specialises in security and international relations, said that in spite of the limited room for international cooperation, the US and its allies South Korea and Japan could still work together to exert greater pressure on Pyongyang. "South Korea can bury the hatchet with Japan and increase intelligence-sharing and missile defence cooperation," Easley said. "The Biden administration can restore military exercises with allies in Asia that had been scaled back during the pandemic. Even if China and Russia block action at the UN Security Council, the US and like-minded countries can improve sanctions enforcement and designate new violators, including Chinese firms," he said.
Quoted in the Asahi Shimbun via Reuters regarding North Korea's weapons development even during Covid lockdown (link):
"Despite its self-imposed pandemic lockdown, North Korea continues to prioritize military modernization," said Leif-Eric Easley, international studies professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted by NBC News regarding Pyongyang's rejection of engagement efforts (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, South Korea, said North Korea's recent missile tests would dampen international hopes for dialogue.
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding the Kim regime launching ballistic missiles while China's foreign minister visited Seoul (link):
The timing of the latest tests - while the top diplomat from North Korea's only ally China is in Seoul - "makes Beijing appear unwilling or unable to restrain Pyongyang," said associate professor of international studies Leif- Eric Easley at Ewha Womans University. "This highlights China's responsibility to do more to safeguard stability in Northeast Asia."
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Quoted in the Financial Times regarding North Korea calibrating its military provocations (link):
"While the Kim regime wants to pressure the United States for sanctions relief, it doesn't want to isolate China and Russia because those governments currently stand in the way of strengthening sanctions," said Leif-Eric Easley from Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted by CNN regarding Pyongyang's lack of interest in diplomacy (link):
"Some analysts suggested the parade was restrained to allow room for negotiations since it did not feature nuclear-capable weapons or policy pronouncements by Kim Jong Un," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "But North Korea's subsequent missile tests contradict international hopes for dialogue."
Quoted in the Independent regarding why North Korea's cruise missiles demand attention (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that cruise missiles might not be able to travel as far or as fast as ballistic missiles, but they are manoeuvrable and fly lower to the ground, making them more difficult to detect and intercept. "The Biden administration has so far taken a measured approach to North Korea, emphasising denuclearisation but also an open door to diplomacy. North Korea's growing capabilities may call for a tougher approach, including strengthening sanctions and missile defences."
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding North Korea's test of long-range cruise missiles (link):
"What makes this test provocative is North Korea's public statement that these cruise missiles are a 'strategic' weapon, implying an intention to miniaturize nuclear warheads to fit on them," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang may be calculating that Washington will take a weaker approach [than pursuing a new UN Security Council Resolution], given strained US relations with China and Russia and those countries' general opposition to increasing sanctions."
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Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding North Korea testing cruise missiles just before U.S., South Korean and Japanese diplomats meet in Tokyo:
"That meeting was to focus on creative ways of diplomatically engaging Pyongyang," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "But now a trilateral statement is needed that mentions sanctions and defense cooperation while calling on North Korea to practice military restraint, resume dialogue, and accept humanitarian assistance for alleviating the suffering of its people."
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Quoted by VOA regarding North Korea's cruise missile test meriting stricter sanctions (link):
Under United Nations Security Council resolutions, North Korea is prohibited from any ballistic missile activity. Although those resolutions do not mention cruise missile technology, some analysts say the latest tests could still receive a tough U.S. response, given the missiles' possible nuclear capability. "If that is the case, then the test is deserving of an international effort to strengthen sanctions," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted by NBC News regarding how North Korea's most recent missile test could affect diplomacy (link):
While some analysts saw the parade as an attempt to make room for diplomatic negotiations, North Korea's missile test "suggests it is more committed to a domestic timeline for military modernization than to any external timeframe for diplomacy," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. The unveiling of the test also came a day before chief nuclear negotiators from the United States, South Korea and Japan meet in Tokyo to explore ways to break the standoff with North Korea. The missile test might lead [Ambassador Sung] Kim to shift his focus at that meeting "from offering humanitarian assistance to coordinating sanctions enforcement and missile defense cooperation," Easley said.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding intentions behind North Korea's latest military parade (link):
"North Korean society is under tremendous stress because of decisions made by the Kim regime. So the parade is intended to show strength and serve as a quarantine morale booster," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said.
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Quoted in the Independent via AP regarding the Kim regime marking North Korea's 73rd Foundation Day (link):
"North Korean society is under tremendous stress because of decisions made by the Kim regime. So the parade is intended to show strength and serve as a quarantine morale booster," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said.
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Quoted in the Diplomat regarding North Korea's relative restraint in its most recent military display (link):
"In celebrating a less significant political anniversary than other recent parades, the purpose [of Thursday's parade] was not to set a new national trajectory but to reassure citizens that the state will overcome natural disasters and pandemic-related challenges," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Some experts theorized that North Korea did not display any new advanced missiles during the parade in order to leave space to renew dialogue with the United States. However, Easley said the parade had little to do with North Korea's international negotiating position and more to do with domestic politics.
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korea's next move toward the United States (link):
"Pyongyang may fire off a test to start a new provocation cycle in search of greater incentives," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "But the Kim regime should know by now that Washington is not going to provide sanctions relief without progress on denuclearization."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's approach to coronavirus vaccines (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha Womans University, said North Korea is likely angling to receive more effective jabs from Covax and then strategically allocate them domestically. "Pyongyang appears to have issues with Covax involving legal responsibility and distribution reporting requirements. So it might procure vaccines from China to deliver to border regions and soldiers while allocating Covax shots to less sensitive populations," Easley said. "The Kim regime likely wants the most safe and effective vaccine for the elite, but administering Pfizer would require upgraded cold-chain capability in Pyongyang and at least discreet discussions with the United States. The Johnson & Johnson option could also be useful to North Korea given that vaccine's portability and one-shot regimen," he said.
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding the International Atomic Energy Agency reporting that North Korea restarted a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon (link):
"Since the North Koreans know this kind of nuclear activity will be easily detected, one has to wonder if they are gearing up to try to sell Yongbyon again," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "But even if Pyongyang is considering returning to negotiations it [will prioritize its own domestic political timeline and] may lead off with a missile test rather than diplomatic engagement."
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Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding why North Korea would resume plutonium production when it already has weapons-grade material, including from uranium enrichment (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, says North Korea has a number of reasons for resuming production of fissile material. "Despite the incredible stress North Korea's economy and society are suffering under self-imposed pandemic isolation, the regime of Kim Jong Un pushes forward with its nuclear programs. As the administration of US President Joe Biden is focused on the coronavirus and Afghanistan, Pyongyang may be looking to create another crisis in an attempt to extract benefits. It would be better for everyone if North Korea skipped the provocation cycle and accepted humanitarian assistance and resumption of dialogue."
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea potentially accepting humanitarian cooperation while still conducting military provocations (link):
North Korea has closed its borders since the start of the pandemic, but it will eventually have to open itself to humanitarian assistance and dialogue with the United States to carry out vaccinations, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. That doesn't necessarily mean it will abstain from a missile test during or after the U.S.-South Korea drills, Easley said.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Kim Jong-un's sister promising military countermeasures against Washington and Seoul's combined exercises (link):
"Kim Yo Jong's threatening statement demonstrates that North Korea will use even restrained U.S.-South Korea defense exercises as an excuse not to implement inter-Korean cooperation agreements and to justify its next military provocation," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding North Korea's disproportionate reaction to Seoul's security alliance training with the United States (link):
"North Korea's amped up rhetoric against scaled down US-South Korea defence exercises appears to be more about domestic politics than signaling to Washington," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the South China Morning Post via Reuters regarding North Korea's motivation for criticizing South Korea (link):
"The Kim regime is shifting blame for its struggles to restart the economy after a long, self-imposed pandemic lockdown," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Philadelphia Inquirer via AP regarding North Korean attempts to influence South Korean politics (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha Womans University, said the North may be trying to pressure South Korean presidential candidates to express differences with U.S. policy on sanctions and denuclearization ahead of the election in March next year.
Quoted in Nikkei regarding North Korean participation at the ASEAN Regional Forum (link):
"The ARF sometimes provides opportunity for quiet diplomacy with North Korean representatives on the meeting's sidelines, but this may not be possible in the virtual format," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "So the North Korean ambassador is likely to stick with Pyongyang's recent talking points of showing some interest in dialogue while trying to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington on defense exercises."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding the two Koreas resuming hotline communications (link):
"North Korea reconnecting hotlines is the logical first step in re-engaging with the South," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The next step may be accepting international humanitarian assistance," he added. "After that, Washington would want to restart denuclearization talks and Seoul would want to arrange separated family reunions. But Pyongyang is unlikely to allow much in-person contact until after the pandemic," Easley said.
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding Pyongyang changing tactics toward Seoul (link):
"Restoring the hotlines is a good sign not only that North Korea wants to avoid unintended conflict and escalation but also that Pyongyang is willing to move past the cold shoulder treatment it has given Seoul since the no- deal Hanoi summit and self-imposed pandemic isolation," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding the outlook for inter-Korean relations (link):
"For Pyongyang, reconnecting hotlines is a low-cost positive step toward improving relations with Seoul," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "This alone does not indicate a change in North Korean intentions but may be enough for the two Koreas to start a new cycle of diplomacy."
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding North Korean cyberattacks against South Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that the North's recent cyberattacks aimed to acquire sensitive technology and information and test South Korean vulnerabilities for future attacks. "Many of North Korea's cybercrimes are state-backed attempts at making money. But the recent cyber intrusions against South Korea do not appear so financially motivated or intended to do immediate damage," Easley said.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding Kim Jong-un warning of a serious Covid-related incident (link):
The party meeting on Tuesday "suggests that the situation in the country has worsened beyond the capacity of self-reliance," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang may be setting up a domestic political narrative to allow the acceptance of foreign vaccines and pandemic assistance," he said. "Kim is likely to blame scapegoats for this incident, purging disloyal government officials and replacing them with others considered more capable."
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding Kim Jong-un possibly opening the door to humanitarian assistance (link):
If health conditions inside North Korea have worsened, Mr. Kim may be seeking political cover for accepting Covid-19 vaccines from overseas, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding Kim Jong-un berating the Politburo over a breach in North Korean quarantine policies (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said Kim's statement "could pave the way to the self- isolated country finally accepting international pandemic assistance." Easley added: "Kim's remark was likely made to justify what he will do next."
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Quoted by the BBC regarding the uncertain public health situation in North Korea (link):
The report was an indication of "deteriorating" health conditions inside North Korea, said Dr Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Kim is likely purging disloyal officials and blaming their ideological lapses," he said. "This may provide Pyongyang justification for demanding that citizens hunker down more."
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's political narratives about the pandemic (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said Kim's efforts to find the scapegoats for the outbreak could also be in preparation for accepting vaccines from abroad.
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Quoted in the Japan Times regarding the Kim regime preempting dissent (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert and professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim's denunciation of senior officials and leadership reshuffle could also be seen as him attempting to maintain an upper hand against any threats from within. "This is Kim Jong Un trying to stay on offense, not only against the virus, but also against any internal actors who would challenge his authority."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding difficulties of delivering humanitarian assistance to North Koreans (link):
"Up to this point, the Kim regime has doubled down on international isolation during the pandemic," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "It is unfortunate there are so few diplomats and aid workers from other countries currently in North Korea. Without many eyes and ears on the ground, it is increasingly difficult to assess the situation, and without their trusted hands, it will be harder to deliver assistance to the people who need it most."
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Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea rebuffing U.S. diplomatic overtures (link):
Kim Yo-jong's statement on Tuesday indicated that "North Korea is not ready to resume negotiations," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. North Korea has a history of seeking incentives before returning to the negotiating table. Analysts in Seoul have suggested the country might use the next joint military exercise between Seoul and Washington, scheduled for August, as a pretext to delay dialogue. North Korea has long called the drills a "hostile" act. "The Biden administration is offering dialogue without preconditions, but Kim Yo-jong intends to place the burden for restarting talks on Washington," Mr. Easley said.
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding Pyongyang's response to Washington and Seoul's calls for dialogue (link):
"Kim Yo Jong rejected notions that her brother had expressed a willingness for talks anytime soon, essentially pushing back against U.S. efforts to put the diplomatic ball in Pyongyang's court," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. Easley added that her statement poured cold water on hopes for re-engagement as North Korea appears determined to maintain its self-imposed isolation out of fear of COVID-19. "The Kim regime also wants to see larger incentives from Washington before returning to negotiations. In the meantime, it is attempting to sow discord in South Korean domestic politics over Seoul's upcoming defense exercises with the United States."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding prospects for negotiations with North Korea (link):
"Advocates of engagement see Kim Jong Un's recent mention of dialogue as a sign North Korea is opening the door for talks, but Pyongyang has not yet expressed a willingness for working-level negotiations on denuclearization," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. He said the North may return to negotiations only after demonstrating its strength with post-pandemic economic recovery and provocative military tests, which could possibly come later this summer when the United States and South Korea usually hold their combined military exercises.
Quoted in Nikkei regarding North Korea's diplomatic strategy (link):
"The North Koreans might make a diplomatic push toward the end of Moon's term to drive a wedge in the South Korean electorate or Seoul's alliance with Washington," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding North Korea considering relations with China in its timeline for missile tests (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said "Beijing would not welcome any major military provocation by Pyongyang while China celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party in July."
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Quoted by the BBC regarding U.S. policy toward North Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, summarised Mr Biden's approach as one that coordinates North Korea policy decisions with allies, while conducting "step-by-step diplomatic engagement." "The administration has not offered a detailed roadmap because it wants flexibility to engage Pyongyang when and where progress can be made," he said. "Meanwhile, Washington will strengthen deterrence by coordinating strategies, military training, and missile defences with allies."
Quoted by Radio New Zealand via the BBC regarding Kim Jong-un's mention of possible dialogue with the United States (link):
"The Biden administration has said the ball is in North Korea's court, but the Kim regime has been serving up some strategic patience of its own," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "It remains focused on domestic issues and wants to see much larger incentives from Washington."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding deteriorating economic conditions in North Korea (link):
While the report [on the plenary session of the Workers' Party Central Committee] was short on specifics, the party meeting does provide more clues about how serious food and consumer goods shortages are becoming in North Korea, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "Extended pandemic border restrictions are taking a toll on the economy as price and exchange rate indicators appear to be worsening."
Quoted in the Independent regarding Kim Jong-un's reappearance at a Politburo meeting (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, who is associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said the North Korean leader uses high-profile government meetings to "appear in command of managing North Korea's social and economic challenges while spreading blame and responsibility among senior officials. Kim's convening these meetings also temporarily dispels rumors of poor health, after he goes weeks without a public appearance. International observers speculated about succession planning given the possibility of a new 'First Secretary' being named under Kim's leading position of 'General Secretary' of the Workers' Party. But what Kim is actually doing is trying to develop governing institutions," Easley said.
Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding possible timelines for re-engaging North Korea (link):
There is urgency on South Korea's part, as President Moon has less than a year left in his constitutionally mandated single five-year term to lead efforts in reviving talks with the North, noted Ewha Womans University's associate professor of international studies Leif-Eric Easley. "So Moon wants the US to speed up its policy roll-out," said Prof Easley. "But the Kim regime is not interested in meeting while it remains paranoid about Covid-19. Most importantly, Pyongyang has no intention of making concessions on its nuclear and missile programmes as long as it receives sufficient economic support from Beijing. To make progress on North Korea, Washington and Seoul need to get on the same page about China."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding the tension between missile development and diplomacy with North Korea (link):
"South Korean progressives often express a willingness to cancel defense exercises with the United States in order to focus on diplomatically engaging North Korea. But Seoul's discontinuation of guidelines that had limited its missile capabilities may be a greater source of friction in pursuing peace with Pyongyang," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said. "From Pyongyang's perspective, this looks like an expensive arms race. The Kim regime will continue to complain about South Korean 'hypocrisy' and U.S. 'hostility' while advancing its own missile programs."
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Quoted in USA Today via AP regarding North Korea's foreign policy strategy (link):
"If Pyongyang agrees to working-level talks, the starting point of negotiations would be a freeze of North Korean testing and development of nuclear capabilities and delivery systems," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "If, on the other hand, Kim shuns diplomacy and opts for provocative tests, Washington will likely expand sanctions enforcement and military exercises with allies." Easley said the North Korean statements by Kwon Jong Gun and Kim Yo Jong show that "Pyongyang is trying to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States" ahead of the May 21 summit between Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
Quoted by VOA regarding the ball being in Pyongyang's court (link):
While the Biden administration is signaling "step-by-step diplomatic engagement," much depends on how North Korea responds in the coming months, says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding Pyongyang's verbal threats toward Washington and Seoul (link):
"The Kim regime doesn't like the Biden administration's focus on denuclearization, nor does it welcome ideological challenges from defector groups," said Leif Eric-Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University. "By vehemently expressing its displeasure, Pyongyang is trying to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States before Moon's May 21 summit with Biden in Washington."
Quoted by CNN regarding the Kim regime's response to defectors in South Korea sending leaflets into North Korea (link):
"The leafleting controversy is one way Pyongyang tries to divide Washington and Seoul by antagonizing South Korean domestic politics. Supporters of leafleting tend to exaggerate the effectiveness of sending bottles and balloons into North Korea. Meanwhile, proponents of the recent leafleting ban exaggerate the importance of such legislation to the safety of residents in border areas," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Yet it is not an exaggeration to say that Moon's ruling party adjusted domestic law in hopes of resuming inter-Korean engagement."
Quoted in the Guardian regarding the economic situation in North Korea during the pandemic (link):
Kim's reference to the "Arduous March" was an ideological call to arms rather than a serious prediction of impending disaster, said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "He was not crying 'famine', but rather demanding national unity for increasing domestic production," Easley said. "Kim is also using North Korea's self-imposed Covid isolation to clean house of foreign influences he considers subversive to his rule."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Pyongyang threatening further missile tests (link):
"For Kim Jong Un's missiles man, Ri Pyong Chol, to label Biden's press conference a provocation is essentially a threat that North Korea will respond to the U.S. policy review with more tests," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Seoul's Ewha Womans University. "Pyongyang is implementing a premeditated strategy of advancing military capabilities and raising tensions. Ri Pyong Chol has larger tests in the works and is trying to maximize political bang for his missile development buck."
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding Pyongyang's potential future provocations (link):
"This has little to do with what Biden said," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "[Ri Pyong Chol has a series of tests already planned, possibly of capabilities that Kim Jong Un laid out in his remarks at the 8th Workers' Party Congress.] They could include solid-fuel rockets, submarine-based weapons, and intercontinental ballistic missiles with more-sophisticated warheads."
Quoted in the South China Morning Post via AFP regarding North Korea's hardline stance against the U.S. and South Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said "Kim Jong Un intends to use provocations to demand concessions but may end up increasing international resolve for North Korea's denuclearization."
Quoted in the Washington Post regarding North Korea's first ballistic missile test during the Biden administration (link):
"Kim Jong Un is determined to deal with the new U.S. administration from a position of strength. With China's economic support, North Korea isn't just going to accept whatever benefits the Biden policy review offers," said Leif- Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Pyongyang's provocations are aimed at negotiating more for less, such as sanctions relief for a testing freeze far short of denuclearization."
Quoted in Nikkei regarding North Korea's second missile test in a week (link):
"With its return to testing different types of missiles, Pyongyang is flirting with the limits of what it can get away with under U.N. Security Council resolutions," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "It is also challenging the 2018 Inter- Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement, which it has threatened to scrap."
Quoted in Al Jazeera via Reuters regarding possible responses to North Korea's missile tests (link):
"The Moon government has doubled down on peace building engagement and the Biden administration is looking to complete a policy review before taking any major moves," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international relations at Ewha University in Seoul. "Strategists in Tokyo worry that North Korea is taking provocative actions to undermine cooperation among Japan, South Korea and the United States. The three countries are trying to get on the same page about deterrence, sanctions and engagement."
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Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea's first missile launch during the Biden administration (link):
North Korea's latest missile test suggests Mr. Kim "will tolerate continued economic reliance on China in order to come out of the pandemic on the offensive against Washington and Seoul," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korea firing short-range cruise missiles (link):
"North Korea's recent missile tests may be part of their regular military exercise schedule, but are still a worrying sign that Pyongyang could be starting a new provocation cycle," Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert and professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.
Quoted in the Washington Post regarding North Korea's first public threat toward the Biden administration on occasion of U.S. military exercises with Seoul (link):
North Korea complained about ongoing U.S.-South Korea military exercises and warned the Biden administration that if it wanted peace for the next four years, it should refrain from "causing a stink." Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim Yo Jong's statement "reeks of hypocrisy" coming after North Korea had conducted its own winter military drills. [...However,] "the Kim regime's rhetoric leaves more room for diplomacy than if it had welcomed Blinken and Austin with a long-range missile test," said Easley.
Quoted in USA Today via AP regarding efforts by Kim Jong-un's sister to divide Washington and Seoul (link):
"This is Kim Yo Jong continuing to be the tip of the wedge North Korea tries to drive between South Korea and its U.S. ally," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding North Korean demands that the U.S. end its 'hostile policy' (link):
North Korea complained about ongoing U.S.-South Korea military exercises and warned the Biden administration that if it wanted peace for the next four years, it should refrain from "causing a stink." Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim Yo Jong's statement "reeks of hypocrisy" coming after North Korea had conducted its own winter military drills. [...However,] "the Kim regime's rhetoric leaves more room for diplomacy than if it had welcomed Blinken and Austin with a long-range missile test," said Easley.
Quoted by VOA regarding North Korea's non-response to the Biden administration's efforts at initial contact (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, says Pyongyang could be ignoring these overtures for any number of reasons, including prioritizing domestic economic issues or out of fear of holding talks during the COVID-19 pandemic. "Pyongyang may be waiting to see what incentives are on offer after the Biden policy review. Or North Korea might be planning its next weapons test to improve its capabilities and raise the stakes for negotiations."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding when North Korea will relax pandemic restrictions at its border with China (link):
"Gradually restoring trade with China will hopefully alleviate the plight of the North Korean people, but may detract from sanctions enforcement and give the Kim regime the luxury to continue rejecting aid and assistance from South Korea," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding the roles of the Quad and South Korea in dealing with China (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that the Quad is critical to South Korea because it "will be a pillar of the Biden administration's foreign policy." "The Quad is not an anti-China alliance, it's a coalition of like-minded countries addressing common challenges and committed to a rules-based order," he said. "The Quad summit will spur cooperation on the pandemic, climate change and technology supply chain security. Beijing will not be a target unless it violates norms, including freedom of navigation, peaceful resolution of disputes, trade commitments and human rights," the expert added, issues that are all in Seoul's national interests. "Demonstrating that it is a contributing stakeholder in a free and open Indo-Pacific will give Seoul greater diplomatic leverage for dealing with North Korea," he said.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding obstacles to reopening the inter- Korean industrial park at Kaesong (link):
"It is worthwhile mapping out economic projects that would provide incentives for North Korea to transform its relations with the world. But not only has Pyongyang gone in the wrong direction on denuclearization for sanctions relief, it has also not respected the rule of law to attract investment," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of International Studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "For firms from other countries to participate in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, North Korea would need to raise its labor standards and allow workers to receive their wages, abide by business contracts and not seize foreign assets, and permit Gaeseong to become more freely linked both internationally and with the rest of North Korea."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding Kim Jong-un upgrading his leadership titles (link):
"Kim taking the title of president appears to emphasize his representation and control of the entire North Korean state on top of his already cultivated image as leader of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. North Korea seeks to refute theories that it is desperate under the pandemic's economic conditions. Kim intends to show confidence in domestic governance and strength ahead of any international negotiations," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding the reappearance of Kim Jong- un's wife, Ri Sol-ju (link):
Pyongyang isn't likely to disclose much about her absence, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Details about the Kim family are state secrets that Pyongyang shares only selectively for national mythmaking. [Rather than play a policy role, Ri] bolsters her husband's fatherly image for political legitimacy and helps ensure the next generation of Kim family rule."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding coordinating policies on North Korean human rights (link):
"Washington and Seoul should avoid clashing over North Korean human rights," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The US and South Korea can speak with one voice regarding humanitarian engagement to benefit the North Korean people, while making clear that peace and transformation of diplomatic relations will require both denuclearization and adherence to the rule of law."
Quoted in the Los Angeles Times via AP regarding North Korean claims of SLBM capability (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the way North Korea featured the submarine-launched missiles in the parade suggests that a test related to them could be North Korea's first provocation for the Biden administration.
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times via Reuters regarding North Korea's post-congress military parade (link):
The parade was not in itself a provocation but was a worrying sign of Pyongyang's priorities, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The economy is severely strained from pandemic border closures, policy mismanagement and international sanctions," he said. "Despite or perhaps because of this, Kim Jong Un feels the need to devote scarce resources to another political-military display."
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding challenges posed by North Korean military modernization (link):
"Despite North Korea's financial weaknesses, it would be a mistake to read Kim Jong Un's nuclear weapons ambitions as mere bluster ahead of Biden's inauguration. With its growing military capabilities, Pyongyang will be more difficult to deter and negotiate with in the New Year," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding North Korea's plans unveiled at the 8th Party Congress (link):
"Far from offering an olive branch to the incoming Biden administration, Pyongyang is promising to take its nuclear weapons development to the next level," Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said. "Kim Jong Un takes credit in his domestic politics for strengthening national defense and tries to paint North Korea as a responsible nuclear power. He insists it's up to Washington to improve relations by abandoning the 'hostile policy' of multiple US administrations." And instead of meeting its commitments and complying with UN Security Council resolutions, Pyongyang has been demanding an end to sanctions as well as US-South Korean military exercises that it falsely claims are a precursor to an invasion of the North, he said.
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Quoted in the Seattle Times via AP regarding Kim Jong-un's updated economic and foreign policies: (link):
"There was no willingness demonstrated to take denuclearization steps for sanctions relief," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "His new economic plan doesn't look that new, as it continues the fiction of self-reliant production to advance North Korean-style socialism." Easley said the North Korean plans were "not realistic." "It's one thing to present an ambitious list of economic and military goals, but quite another to pay for and implement them."
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding North Korea's military deception and nuclear blackmail (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim could be hinting at a long-range missile test disguised as a reconnaissance satellite launch. [To extract payment from other countries] "in previous nuclear negotiations, Pyongyang tried to sell assets it no longer needs like the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, its Dongchang-ri missile test site, and the aging facilities at [its main nuclear site] Yongbyon," said Easley. "Now it is advertising assets it doesn't yet have."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding Kim Jong-un's leadership titles (link):
Prior to the party congress, there had been speculation that Kim would take a new military title, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "By emphasizing a party position instead, he is reasserting the importance of the party in state and military affairs," Easley said. "'General secretary' is also (Chinese President) Xi Jinping's title with the Communist Party of China, so Kim may be signaling closer alignment with Beijing." As for rumors that Kim's sister was being groomed to succeed the leader in the event of his untimely demise, Easley said there was little evidence that was the case. "It doesn't make sense to talk about a No. 2 in the North Korean system, but having someone else who can speak for the regime with authority gives Kim Jong Un flexibility to step in and increase pressure further or dial it back to avoid unwanted conflict," Easley said.
Quoted in the Independent regarding promotions and appointments announced at the 8th Party Congress in Pyongyang (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul said: "Kim Jong-un is not transferring power but rather empowering various trusted officials with limited governing authority. This is about purging ineffective managers, modernizing state institutions, and sharing responsibility."
Quoted by Yonhap regarding the role of Kim Jong-un's sister in the North Korean regime (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, pointed out that Kim Yo-jong's path of promotions is "not linear." "She comes in and out of prominence and her title tends not to match her importance. She is a confidant and image consultant for her brother as well as a trusted pair of eyes and ears embedded in the North Korean elite."
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Quoted in the Asahi Shimbun via Reuters regarding North Korea's economic policies (link):
Kim's decision to stage a huge congress and talk of ambitious projects in the face of serious shortages for many North Koreans shows how the government has "internalized its own propaganda," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The country's economic and social conditions are worse than many outsiders appreciate," he said. "Kim tells his people about domestic shortfalls and promises improvements but is unlikely to adjust policies to receive aid and assistance."
Quoted in the Independent regarding promotions and appointments announced at the 8th Party Congress in Pyongyang (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul said: "Kim Jong-un is not transferring power but rather empowering various trusted officials with limited governing authority. This is about purging ineffective managers, modernizing state institutions, and sharing responsibility."
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding Kim Jong-un's remarks about the United States during the 8th Party Congress (link):
"Rather than demonstrating any commitment to denuclearization, Pyongyang expects to be rewarded for abstaining from provocations," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Kim is essentially saying the ball is in the incoming Biden administration's court."
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding the interaction of U.S. and North Korean domestic politics (link):
Mr. Kim has not joined other autocracies in gloating at the US over the violence that broke out in Washington this week. But the 37-year-old dictator might later raise Washington's political tumult to justify distrust of nuclear negotiations with the US or to support China on global governance questions, said Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding expected challenges of negotiating with North Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said that "the fundamental problem" is that "Kim wants regime-sustaining economic growth while retaining nuclear weapons. Pyongyang is thus likely to demand sanctions relief for merely reducing tensions rather than making progress on denuclearization."
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding the content of North Korea's 8th Party Congress (link):
"Kim will unveil a new economic plan and present a lineup of loyal cadres to implement it. The Congress will maintain North Korea's ideology and cult of leadership, [while emphasizing policy pragmatism and institutional reform]," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. He added that the Congress is likely to "pledge that North Korea won't give in to international pressure."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korean politics surrounding the 8th Party Congress (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor and expert on North Korea at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim was likely to use the party congress as "a tool for national unity and governing legitimacy. Kim is responding to the economic crisis with political theater because he lacks resources under sanctions and self-imposed pandemic restrictions," Easley said. "Kim's admission of policy failures is now an established pattern to make him appear a man of the people without accepting personal consequences."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding the severity of North Korea's internal situation (link):
"Kim has to admit to the setbacks and promise adjustments as North Korea's economic policy has dramatically failed. Nonetheless, while sanctions, natural disasters and the pandemic challenge the regime, they don't really hold it at risk," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said.
Quoted in the Guardian regarding what to expect at North Korea's 8th Party Congress (link):
"It's not like Kim Jong-un is going to come out and promise denuclearization, marketization and human rights improvements," said Leif- Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "What optimists are looking for is a willingness to engage in diplomacy with the incoming Biden administration, mention of economic development opportunities, including with South Korea, and any openness to humanitarian cooperation during the pandemic. Pessimists expect the Kim regime will emphasize military strength, self-reliant socialism, and an ongoing crackdown on subversive elements."
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Quoted by Yonhap regarding North Korea's policy toward the next U.S. administration (link):
"It would be constructive for negotiations if North Korea abstains from welcoming the Biden administration with a military provocation," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said.
Quoted in the ABC News via AP regarding North Korea's upcoming 8th Party Congress (link):
"The party congress date has still not been made public, perhaps to give Kim some flexibility and perhaps out of security concerns. But if it occurs in early January, that would notably be before Inauguration Day in the United States. Kim may want to preempt rather than react to the Biden administration's policies," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.
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Quoted in the South China Morning Post via AFP regarding North Korea's expressions of nationalist pride involving a frozen inter-Korean tourism project (link):
"The Kim regime will struggle to find the resources to redevelop Mt Kumgang and needs outside investment, but is signaling it will downgrade South Korean partners and stakeholders," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Independent via AP regarding North Korean premier Kim Tok-hun's remarks while visiting the shuttered Mt. Kumgang resort (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the timing of Sunday's North Korean statement is less about tourism and more about political pressure. "By holding Seoul's hopes for engagement at risk," North Korea is pressuring South Korea "to find ways of resuming financial benefits for the North," he said.
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding North Korea's unilateralist turn on development of Mt. Kumgang (link):
Some experts said Pyongyang's latest move to hold the tourism zone hostage is a sign. "This pressuring of Seoul to convince Washington to loosen sanctions may be indicative of the strategy Pyongyang will pursue after the 8th Party Congress," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Diplomat regarding North Korea's handling of the global pandemic (link):
"Kim Yo Jong's criticism of Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha's remarks may seem gratuitous, but it is not unusual for North Korea to go on offense when in a defensive position," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of Ewha University in Seoul. "Pyongyang's draconian anti-epidemic measures suggest the COVID-19 situation is worse than it admits and that the Kim regime is more concerned with the politics of the virus than the economic suffering of its people."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding the North Korean leader's sister Kim Yo-jong rhetorically attacking South Korea (link):
"Knowing that U.S. and South Korean officials are meeting this week, Kim Yo-jong may be disavowing North Korea's need for aid as a way of lowering the perceived bargaining value of future assistance," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "It also can't be ruled out that the North Korean regime is calculating the South Korean foreign minister will resign soon. To sow division in the South and claim influence in the North, Kim Yo-jong might want to look responsible for President Moon changing another cabinet position as appeared to be the case with the unification minister in June."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding how North Korea's lockdown is not just about keeping COVID-19 at bay (link):
"It is a bet on short-term pain for long-term gain by cracking down on actors seen as disloyal to the Kim regime ahead of the 8th Workers' Party Congress," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding prospects for renewing Olympics diplomacy to engage Pyongyang (link):
"Some opinion leaders in Japan may not be interested in the Tokyo Olympics being a venue for diplomacy with North Korea because they want the games to symbolize recovery from environmental, nuclear and public health disasters," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "However, welcoming North Korea could be an effective hedge against missile tests and cyberattacks during the Olympics, and could produce progress on the abduction issue. For Tokyo to coordinate with Seoul on such a diplomatic gambit, relations over history need to improve. This is possible if South Korea establishes a domestic compensation fund for wartime laborers before liquidation of Japanese corporate assets, retaliation from Suga, and pressure from a Biden administration for allies to reconcile."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding prospects for renewing Olympics diplomacy to engage Pyongyang (link):
"Some opinion leaders in Japan may not be interested in the Tokyo Olympics being a venue for diplomacy with North Korea because they want the games to symbolize recovery from environmental, nuclear and public health disasters," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "However, welcoming North Korea could be an effective hedge against missile tests and cyberattacks during the Olympics, and could produce progress on the abduction issue. For Tokyo to coordinate with Seoul on such a diplomatic gambit, relations over history need to improve. This is possible if South Korea establishes a domestic compensation fund for wartime laborers before liquidation of Japanese corporate assets, retaliation from Suga, and pressure from a Biden administration for allies to reconcile."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korea's low-key approach to the results of the U.S. presidential election (link):
"This is not out of respect for President Trump but because Pyongyang has serious economic and social challenges to address" ahead of a key ruling party congress scheduled for January, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding prospects for Korean unification compared with Germany's experience (link):
South Korea is a democratic, globalized, capitalist U.S. ally, as was West Germany before unification. But North Korea is a harsh dictatorship repressing its people, distorting its economy, and pursuing nuclear weapons, all to maintain the Kim regime. East and West Germany interacted much more during the Cold War than the two Koreas, which have been divided for decades longer. Before its defeat in World War II, Germany was a threatening state that invaded its neighbors; in contrast, Korea experienced colonialism and civil war. While West Germany successfully integrated into the European community, Northeast Asia lacks comparable institutions. Unified Germany became the largest economy in Europe, surrounded by many other states. But even a unified Korea would be surrounded by larger powers China, Japan and Russia. South Korea may have more divisive domestic politics and a less favorable regional environment than West Germany did, but its biggest challenge is the lack of a trustworthy partner in Pyongyang.
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Quoted in the Diplomat regarding the relationship of high-level defectors with the North Korean regime (link):
"Unless the former North Korean diplomat in question comes forward himself, publicizing his case may unnecessarily increase the risk to his family," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "As a member of the North Korean elite – by birth, education, and profession – he is privy to information that could be damaging to a totalitarian system. If more [high-level defectors] become outspoken like Thae Yong-ho, they could encourage further defections and undermine the Kim regime.
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding Kim Yo-jong's role in the North Korean regime (link):
"Internationally, she is a more credible signaler than a replaceable North Korean official, whether serving as messenger of engagement at the winter Olympics or as enforcer of punishment with the destruction of the inter- Korean liaison office," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding why North Korea unveiled but has not yet test launched its new long-range missile (link):
"The Kim regime is focused on domestic challenges and is waiting out the U.S. presidential election before starting another cycle of provocations and diplomacy," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Parading a 'new strategic weapon' offers domestic political benefits without the risks of an internationally provocative missile test."
Quoted in NK News regarding North Korea's technologically upgraded propaganda (link):
"Kim Jong Un's 'man of the people' image and the higher production value of the parade fit a pattern of increasingly sophisticated North Korean propaganda," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "The country's formidable borders are not airtight from new media trends, and this is a young dictator who plans on staying in power for a long time," Easley added. "So, North Korea's internal and external messaging is trying to shed its outdated form and content by being more tech savvy and evocative."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding the outlook for diplomacy after North Korea's major military parade (link):
"Kim's weapons speak louder than his words, making clear that Pyongyang isn't currently interested in talking peace with Seoul or negotiating denuclearization with Washington," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "North Korea not only rolled out a new strategic weapon, ICBM, designed to deliver a larger payload to the United States, it also displayed many qualitative and quantitative upgrades to conventional weapons aimed at South Korea."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding Pyongyang's continuous weapons development (link):
"When North Korea was more engaged in diplomacy in 2018-2019, it exercised some restraint by not featuring ICBMs in public displays. But all the while, the Kim regime has been further developing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. He added that at the parade the North unveiled a possibly upgraded SLBM and a larger ICBM that qualifies as the new strategic weapon Kim warned the world about early this year amid a stalemate in denuclearization negotiations with the US. "North Korea continues to improve and expand its firepower that can raise the stakes for future negotiations," Easley said.
Quoted in the Bangkok Post via AFP regarding North Korea parading new weapons systems in Pyongyang (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, cautioned that it was not yet clear how much of the equipment on show "really works." But he added: "Politics of deception notwithstanding, the weapons featured in Pyongyang's processions are a sobering reminder that North Korea will not be ignored."
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Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding Kim Jong-un's speech at the Workers' Party 75th Anniversary parade (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim's speeches are becoming more politically sophisticated. "He took responsibility and expressed sympathy for his people's struggles," Easley said. "He even offered condolences and encouragement to South Korea over the coronavirus pandemic. But this is still a regime that systematically violates human rights. And rather than take Kim's words as a hopeful sign for engagement, the South Korean government should be concerned about the advanced conventional weapons displayed at the parade that have Seoul within range."
Quoted by CNBC via Reuters regarding North Korea's political priorities in holding a massive military parade (link):
"It is an impressively large gathering during a global pandemic, suggesting North Korean authorities are concerned more with political history and national morale than with preventing a Covid-19 superspreader event," said Leif-Eric Easley, who teaches at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted by VOA regarding the domestic focus of the North Korean Workers' Party 75th Anniversary celebration (link):
The parade might be meant to boost national pride and domestic solidarity. "This is particularly important when policy errors, natural disasters, international sanctions and the global pandemic have caused the Kim regime to fall short of its economic promises," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding the effects of high-level defections on inter-Korean relations (link):
"Rep. Thae Yong-ho has called on North Korean diplomats to abandon the Kim regime and join him in South Korea to actively work for unification," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University. "Jo Song-gil has remained out of the public eye, likely because of concern for his family. Renewed attention to Jo's defection is not what the Kim regime wants immediately before the Workers' Party 75th Anniversary celebrations."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea's crisis management diplomacy (link):
"The statement attributed to Kim Jong-un is a low-cost way of managing a potential crisis situation," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Kim's apparent move may also mitigate the deepening of North Korea's pariah status in South Korean public opinion, allowing the Moon government to continue its engagement efforts that offer various carrots to Pyongyang."
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Quoted in the Washington Post regarding Pyongyang's apology for killing a South Korean citizen drifting in North Korean waters (link):
"Kim Jong Un's supposed apology reduces the risk of escalation between the two Koreas and keeps the Moon government's hopes for engagement alive," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Kim's diplomatic move avoids a potential fight in the short-term and preserves the option of reaping longer-term benefits from Seoul."
Quoted in Stars and Stripes regarding whether North Korea will go beyond its half-apology for killing a South Korean citizen (link):
"Unfortunately, it is of little surprise that North Korea prioritizes its draconian border control and anti-epidemic procedures over the life of a civilian drifting into its waters," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "It is understandable for Seoul to call for a joint probe and demand that the North adjust its rules of engagement to avoid a reoccurrence. But there is little chance Pyongyang will offer further cooperation or contrition. The United States has supported its ally's legal position and likely provided intelligence but is not interested in seeing search and recovery operations escalate into a naval incident."
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding Kim Jong-un controlling the escalation ladder with South Korea (link):
Kim's response to Tuesday's killing may suggest that he is seeking to portray himself as a statesman. Meanwhile, his sister Yo Jong, whose profile in the Party has risen this year, has been taking on a more hawkish role. Her name has been on hardline state media statements, and she apparently ordered the demolition of the inter-Korean office. Easley noted that Kim had intervened to de-escalate tensions after his sister's initiative.
Quoted by VOA regarding the status of the inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) (link):
With Kim's apparent apology, the risk of escalation has been reduced, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. He says the killing could have led to "tit-for-tat violations" of a military agreement meant to reduce tensions along the frontier.
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding why North Korea offered an explanation for killing a South Korean near the maritime border (link):
"The shooting incident was turning South Korean public opinion against offering peace and humanitarian assistance to Pyongyang," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding North Korea killing a South Korean citizen (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said the shooting probably had "more to do with North Korea's draconian border restrictions" than a political response to Mr Moon's peace proposals. "However, it is certainly not a good indicator for resuming some form of South Korean tourism to the North, which has been mostly suspended since North Korean soldiers shot a South Korean woman in the back at Mount Kumgang in 2008," he said.
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding speculation about a last-minute U.S.-DPRK deal because both Trump and Kim left benefits on the negotiating table and could use an international win to help with domestic politics (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that a major diplomatic overture with North Korea is unlikely before the election, as the risks outweigh expected benefits for both sides. "From North Korea's perspective, there is no improvement in how Washington values what Pyongyang has proposed to exchange for sanctions relief, so it will try to coerce a better payoff after the election," he said. "From Trump's perspective, he already has a useful 'October surprise' in the form of a Supreme Court nomination battle, and his reelection campaign argues the foreign policy victory box is checked by the UAE and Bahrain's diplomatic normalization with Israel."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding the human rights issue of South Korean citizens detained in North Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said the next time the North seeks economic cooperation or assistance, the South should push harder for separated family reunions and the return of the detainees. "The Moon administration made a genuine effort to build political trust, but should have demanded more progress on humanitarian issues earlier. Atmospherics are not as important as reciprocity, and human life cannot be replaced like a hotline or a building."
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding Kim Jong-un's promises to build back better after natural disasters in North Korea (link):
The high-profile government meetings and mobilizing of the military and Pyongyang elites are examples of Kim's responsiveness but the damage is testing state capacity and resources, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The political risk to Kim of failing to deliver promised reconstruction may be limited, but an accumulation of economic failures will strain his regime," Easley said.
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding the politics of natural disasters and food security in North Korea (link):
"Kim Jong-un's more frequent visits to the provinces are intended to show a 'leader of the people' response to natural disasters," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "But this is also blunt recognition that the elite in Pyongyang are not self-reliant. Kim's increased attention to farmers reflects a worrying food supply situation in the country."
Quoted in the New York Times via Yonhap regarding emergency meetings of top North Korean officials (link):
"The situation in North Korea must be dire for Kim Jong-un to hold so many high-level conferences," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The latest politburo meeting touted preparations to mitigate the effects of another natural disaster and correct errors in COVID-19 prevention efforts. The party does not want to appear flat-footed and will take credit if a crisis is averted."
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Quoted in PRI's The World regarding humanitarian assistance for North Korea (link):
"Seoul is willing to engage in inter-Korean humanitarian cooperation, but Kim prioritizes national pride and regime legitimacy over public welfare," said Leif-Eric Easley, an international studies expert at Seoul's Ewha Womans University. "Pyongyang may wait until its next provocation and deescalation cycle to accept South Korean overtures," he said. "That cycle is likely to begin after the US presidential election or inauguration."
Quoted in Stars and Stripes regarding North Korea putting provocations on hold and focusing on domestic politics (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said Kim is essentially admitting that the current economic plan has failed. "Kim pins blame on external factors like sanctions and the pandemic, but also demands internal adjustments. Given North Korea's refusal to denuclearize, diplomacy appears on hold for now. With the U.S. election approaching, a major weapons test would be risky," he said. "So, at the moment, holding party meetings and promising plans is the safest way the North Korean leader can show he is taking action."
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding North Korea announcing the next Workers' Party Congress (link):
"By January, Kim will know the result of the U.S. presidential election so may update North Korea's position on denuclearization talks," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "However, North Korea continues to expand its capabilities despite economic challenges and independent of diplomatic signaling. While much of the world is focused on the pandemic and contentious elections, the Kim regime is advancing its nuclear, missile and cyber programs for coercion, not just deterrence."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding a North Korean politburo meeting responding to floods amid the coronavirus pandemic (link):
"North Korea's rejection of flood relief is ostensibly to prevent transmission of Covid-19 into the country," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "But humanitarian assistance is heavily politicized by the Kim regime, as it does not want to show weakness to the domestic population or international rivals."
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Kim Jong-un refusing humanitarian assistance and appointing a new prime minister (link):
Kim's public rejection of international aid for flood recovery and his decision to release Kaesong from quarantine are negative indicators for inter-Korean cooperation as South Korea had hoped to restart diplomatic engagement by providing support in these areas, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The North Korean economy, while touting self-reliance, is increasingly dependent on China and will struggle to balance sanctions-busting efforts and COVID-19 prevention," Easley said. "The job of North Korea's new premier will be to show the country has recovered from recent flooding and has upgraded public health facilities" by the October party anniversary, he said.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding whether Kim Jong-un touting 'war deterrence' amounts to a change in policy on denuclearization talks (link):
"The veterans' conference is not a venue for new policy pronouncements, but rather where Kim reassures the Korean War generation that national security is in good hands with the current leadership," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding North Korea's politically motivated coronavirus claims (linki:
"Blaming an alleged return defector for bringing COVID-19 into the country is likely intended to shift blame for spread of the virus away from China and Pyongyang and on to Seoul," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "This may also be a tactic for ratcheting up diplomatic pressure on South Korea and trying to further dissuade North Koreans from defecting to the South."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding new statements from North Korea's Central Military Commission (link):
According to Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, the reference to "munitions production" likely includes short- and medium- range missiles targeting South Korea, Japan and U.S. forces there. "The reference to the 'strategic mission' of certain military units bolstering Pyongyang's 'war deterrent' implies further deployment of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles," he said.
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding prospects for diplomacy with North Korea (link):
Some analysts believe North Korea will avoid serious talks with the Americans for now and instead focus on pressuring the South in a bid to increase its bargaining power before an eventual return to negotiations after the U.S. presidential election in November. They say North Korea likely doesn't want to make any major commitments or concessions when there is a chance U.S. leadership could change. But Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the prospects of a fourth Trump-Kim meeting shouldn't be ruled out. "Normally a U.S. president wouldn't take such a gambit ahead of an election, but down in the polls, Trump has incentive to go ever further off script," he said. Kim may also see a closing window of opportunity if Trump is expected to leave office and could possibly attempt to exchange reversible denuclearization steps for sanctions relief and South Korean investment, Easley said.
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding possible North Korean dealmaking before the U.S. presidential election (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said, "After pocketing immediate gains, Pyongyang could return to cheating on its denuclearization commitments during a Biden administration." If Trump is re-elected, it also has a playbook in place. "Kim would likely increase efforts to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul by appealing to Trump's alliance cost-cutting preferences and Moon's enthusiasm for inter-Korean projects," Easley said.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea's strategy of escalation and de-escalation (link):
Analysts also warned that Mr. Kim may shift his posture again if Seoul and Washington don't appease the North. As the presidential election in the United States draws near, Mr. Kim could attempt major military provocations to gain leverage with whomever wins the election. "There may be a pause in provocations or Pyongyang might temporarily de-escalate in search of external concessions," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "But North Korea will almost certainly continue to bolster its so-called 'deterrent.'"
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding North Korea's politics of provocations (link):
"Now isn't the time for anyone in Seoul or Washington to be self- congratulatory about deterring North Korea," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "As long as the Kim regime refuses to denuclearize, it is likely to use Seoul as a scapegoat for its military modernization and domestic politics of economic struggle after failing to win sanctions relief."
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Quoted in the Asia Times via AFP regarding North Korea pausing its pressure campaign toward the South (link):
The nuclear-armed North "is by no means done threatening South Korea or bolstering its so-called deterrent," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told AFP. "The Kim regime had domestic political boxes to check and may be presently satisfied with public unity." ... Since early June, Kim Yo Jong has been the face of Pyongyang's highly aggressive stance toward the South over anti-North leaflets. "Having someone else speak for the regime gives Kim Jong Un the option of adjusting course," said Easley. "He may do so in search of external concessions or because his military needs more time to implement the next provocation."
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding Kim Jong-un suspending military action against South Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, warned that while there might be a "brief pause" in provocations, Pyongyang would soon resume military action linked to deterring foreign attacks. "Rather than take action at the DMZ when everyone's looking, the Kim regime tends to make asymmetric moves leveraging an element of surprise," he said.
Quoted by Yonhap regarding the status of inter-Korean relations (link):
"If North Korea increased military deployments near the border, reactivated propaganda speakers and sent leaflets toward the South, these would be means of demonstrating that it considers the Comprehensive Military Agreement null and void," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Today's announcement suggests that the 2018 inter-Korean confidence-building agreement isn't dead but remains on life support."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding Kim Jong-un promoting his sister for strategic flexibility (link):
The North's sudden turn toward animosity with the South — and, by extension, the United States — may reflect a desire to unify the country in the face of an economy further hobbled by the coronavirus pandemic and of a deepening need to push for concessions on international sanctions, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Placing Ms. Kim up front in North Korea's growing confrontation with Seoul and Washington may also give Mr. Kim "diplomatic flexibility" if he wants to change course, Mr. Easley said.
Quoted in the South China Morning Post regarding the prospects of engaging North Korea (link):
"It's difficult to foresee a large-scale breakthrough with North Korea absent significant progress on denuclearisation, and it's difficult to foresee that without some meaningful changes within North Korea," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Daily Mail regarding the reasons behind Kim Yo-jong's increased visibility (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, an expert at Ewha University in Seoul, says there are [at least] three possible reasons for this: Kim Jong Un's health concerns forced him to ensure the next family member was in place for running the country; to create diplomatic flexibility, so he could seem more moderate; or to balance against rival factions. "Whether Kim Yo-jong's upgraded role is a matter of succession planning, maintaining diplomatic wiggle room or playing a domestic political power game, North Korea is a growing factor of regional instability."
Quoted by Yonhap regarding dangers of miscalculation as North Korea heightens tensions (link):
"North Korea ramping up troop deployments and exercises near the border will risk physical confrontation, especially after it cut off inter-Korean communication, thus increasing the possibility of miscalculation and unintended escalation," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Jakarta Post via AFP regarding North Korea's approach to Seoul (link):
"Pyongyang is damaging inter-Korean relations to ratchet up pressure in search of international concessions," said North Korea specialist Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha University. "The decision to pressure Seoul is a strategy, not a tactic."
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Quoted in the Guardian regarding North Korea's continuing threats (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the destruction of the liaison office was "an act of political violence, symbolising that years of inter-Korean engagement have been reduced to rubble. If Pyongyang creates this much drama ostensibly over leaflets, imagine what it has planned in response to US-South Korea combined exercises this summer."
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding the implications of North Korea destroying the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong (link):
"It's hard to see how such behavior will help the Kim regime get what it wants from the world, but clearly such images will be used for domestic propaganda," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Washington Post regarding increased tensions between the two Koreas (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that North Korea is strategically pressuring the South to try to secure concessions on sanctions. "So Seoul needs to impose additional costs demonstrating to Pyongyang that its threats are counterproductive."
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Quoted in the Financial Times regarding North Korea's abandonment of diplomacy (link):
"North Korea has started a provocation cycle with stages of escalation. It is unlikely to jump immediately to a long-range missile launch as that would prompt additional sanctions from the United States," said Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding the role of Kim Jong-un's sister in North Korea's recent assertiveness (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the images of the liaison office's destruction will be used for domestic propaganda, though the act may not derive any direct foreign-policy benefit. The event was designed to elevate Ms. Kim, so she would be seen more as "an influential policy maker and decisive leader in her own right," he said.
Quoted by the BBC regarding North Korea blowing up the inter-Korean liaison office (link):
"North Korea's violent destruction of the liaison office at Kaesong is a symbolic blow to inter-Korean reconciliation and co-operation," said Leif- Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
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Quoted by VOA regarding the context of North Korea's destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office (link):
"This is a staged provocation cycle rather than a one-off response to NGO leaflets," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The Kim regime is also signaling the United States won't have the luxury of keeping North Korea on the back-burner for the remainder of the year."
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding North Korea's strategy behind pressuring Seoul (link):
Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University said Pyongyang could be trying to decouple the Seoul-Washington alliance by making things "politically inconvenient for both Trump and Moon" [with the goal] that the US would leave Seoul to deal with Pyongyang on its own. "Kim Jong Un wants Moon to cancel military exercises and circumvent sanctions to provide the North with economic benefits," he said. "Eventually, North Korea will challenge the US directly and demand sanctions relief to deescalate a manufactured crisis." Prof Easley added that Mr Kim "sees little to lose" by pressuring South Korea, and that the regime will continue to escalate tensions even if Seoul responds with restraint.
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding how South Korea can respond to North Korea's recent threats (link):
"The Moon government can restore military exercises to pre-Singapore levels," said Leif-Eric Easley, who teaches international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Independent regarding U.S.-DPRK relations, two years after the first Trump-Kim summit (link):
"The problem with the Singapore summit was that it ended maximum pressure and green-lit North Korea-China relations, but did not secure a roadmap for denuclearisation," says Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Hanoi served a purpose in "clarifying the positions" of both sides, says Easley, but the failure to secure expected sanctions relief led Kim to lash out at South Korea, denting inter-Korean relations. The breakdown in talks "left the North Koreans angry and the South Koreans disempowered from continuing engagement," he says, while the DMZ meeting "provided symbolic photos worthy of the history books – but failed to write the actual history." Two years on from Singapore, North Korea is still "nowhere near a strategic decision to denuclearise," says Easley, and the intervening period has served to show that "leader-led diplomacy is woefully insufficient."
Quoted in the Telegraph regarding North Korean intensions for pressuring Seoul (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul, says the increasingly aggressive positions that Kim Yo-jong is adopting against the South are serious and worrying. "This demonstrates a pattern of Kim Yo-jong acting as a hardline spokesperson for her brother on relations with Seoul," he said. "It also indicates how fragile inter-Korean relations are, not only because North Korea has cut off so much cooperation and communication already, but also because it is willing to threaten the foundations of long-term cooperation for its short-term concerns about domestic political legitimacy. The Kim regime also aims to stoke division in the South and may be working to rhetorically justify something bigger than a short-range missile test."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding North Korea cutting its diplomatic and military hotlines with South Korea (link):
"The Kim regime likely sees this as a low-cost, easily reversible way of expressing its displeasure. It may have domestic political priorities and is probably trying to drive wedges between Washington and Seoul and between South Korean progressives and conservatives," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The fundamental problem is that North Korea appears unwilling to play by any rules but its own and continually fails to live up to its end of an agreement."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding South Korea's policy toward North Korea (link):
Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University says that Seoul should not veer from its engagement policy, but at the same time the country should not allow its policies to overshadow its values on issues such as human rights and security. "Seoul should not give in to coercion or give away taxpayers' money as a sign of goodwill, but rather test various initiatives to see where Pyongyang is willing to engage in reciprocal cooperation," Easley said, adding that North Korea policies should not be allowed to damage Seoul's alliance with the US or to contravene international sanctions.
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding Pyongyang issuing new threats to Seoul (link):
International studies professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University noted "there are more fundamental internal factors behind the elevation of Kim Yo Jong and efforts to rally public support in the North against the South. Why do that when Seoul is willing to give benefits to Pyongyang, expecting very little in return? Because there are domestic equities at stake that are worth more to Kim than what the South Koreans can currently offer." Prof Easley pointed to North Korea's economic recovery post- Covid-19, adding that "obviously there are people who matter for Kim's rule who are unhappy with the current state of the economy."
Quoted by VOA regarding Kim Jong-un's sister making high-profile statements (link):
"Kim Yo Jong is mentioned in the North Korean media on an issue in order to send a signal internationally, elevate her visibility domestically, and so she can receive credit later for an accomplishment planned by the regime," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted by Yonhap regarding Kim Jong-un's sister's hardline statement against South Korea (link):
"The Kim regime clearly aims to stoke division in the South and appears to be elevating Kim Yo-jong in North Korean politics," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Kim Yo-jong's warning that North Korea will pull out of inter-Korean projects and agreements (link):
"It's remarkable how this comes when the Moon government looks to reengage after relative success fighting COVID-19 and the new progressive majority is seated in the National Assembly," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Instead [of welcoming engagement], Kim uses his sister, who was special envoy for North Korea's smile diplomacy during the 2018 Winter Olympics, to threaten the minimal foundation that remains of inter-Korean cooperation on which South Korean progressives hope to build."
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Quoted by VOA regarding tensions over NGO activities near the inter- Korean border (link):
"It's surprising to hear the South Korean government sound so compliant to Pyongyang immediately after Kim Yo Jong issued threats to Seoul and cast aspersions on defector and human rights groups," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "President Moon's pro-engagement party may control the National Assembly, but legislation to effectively restrict freedom of expression in order to protect the Kim regime from embarrassment would be met with a conservative backlash domestically and criticism from human rights NGOs internationally," he added.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding Kim Jong-un's sister criticizing South Korea for allowing defectors to send balloons of leaflets over the DMZ (link):
Kim Yo-jong's statement reflects "Pyongyang's desire to drive a wedge between the South Korean government and civil society," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Daily Beast regarding North Korea's recent Central Military Commission meeting (link):
"With sanctions and the pandemic cutting North Korean trade, the Kim regime has less material benefits to distribute among loyalists," said Leif- Eric Easley, international relations professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "When you're running low on cash, you can still dole out shiny medals and fancy titles. Kim appears to be rewarding those who have delivered successful weapons tests. Further promotions might hinge on the long- awaited 'new strategic weapon' that may be a ballistic missile submarine," said Easley. "North Korea is set on strengthening its claimed nuclear deterrent irrespective of U.S. policy, but Pyongyang is likely to use some trumped-up threat from Washington as an excuse for its next major test."
Quoted in the New York Times via AP regarding Kim's re-emergence after another public absence (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said that Kim's "public appearances have more to do with domestic politics than international signaling, but it is interesting for him to reappear in state media about the time the world started noticing he'd been gone for three weeks again."
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Quoted in the Washington Post via Reuters regarding North Korea's Central Military Commission meeting to strengthen 'nuclear deterrence' (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said it was probably a coincidence that the announcement was made just after it emerged that the Trump administration had discussed whether to conduct the country's first nuclear test since 1992. "The intention in Washington for pondering such a move may be to pressure Russia and China to improve arms control commitments and enforcement. But not only might this tack encourage more nuclear risk-taking by those countries, it could provide Pyongyang an excuse for its next provocation."
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding intelligence implications of Kim Jong-un's absence and reappearance (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a North Korea expert at Ewha University in Seoul, said that North Korea had suffered reputational damage from the "rumour-filled weeks", especially "as some discussions of instability seeped back to Pyongyang". However, Mr Easley believed the Kim regime will have gleaned information about its adversaries, too. "The episode was also an intelligence gathering opportunity for North Korea," said Mr Easley, "showing how much international observers can be swayed by misinformation, how the better informed South Korean government may rely on certain methods, and how Seoul and Washington lack co-ordination with Tokyo and Beijing over North Korean contingencies."
Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding an exchange of gunfire at the North-South Korean border (link):
Ewha University international affairs professor Leif-Eric Easley in Seoul said the shooting incident could be aimed at boosting morale in the North Korean military. "The Kim regime may be looking to raise morale of its frontline troops and to regain any negotiating leverage lost during the rumor-filled weeks of the leader's absence," said Easley. "South Korea and the United States should not take lightly such North Korean violations of existing military agreements."
Quoted by VOA regarding North Korea initiating gunfire at the DMZ (link):
"North Korea firing on a South Korean guard post is a violation of the 1953 Armistice Agreement that ended the Korean War and a violation of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement that came out of the Moon-Kim summit in Pyongyang," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "North Korea appears to be showing little interest in the South Korean proposal of turning the DMZ into a 'peace zone.'"
Quoted in the New York Times regarding lack of intelligence on the Kim regime (link):
One of the biggest lessons from recent weeks is that "the world is largely unprepared for instability in North Korea," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding the reported reappearance of Kim Jong-un (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said, "Washington, Seoul and Tokyo need tighter coordination on contingency plans while international organizations need more resources and less controversy over the role of China."
Quoted in the AFP regarding how North Korea has apparently disproven dire predictions about its leadership (link):
"If photos of Kim's reappearance are authentic, one lesson is that the world should listen more to the South Korean government and less to unnamed sources and (social media) rumors." But Pyongyang "probably won't explain Kim's recent absence given the secrecy around the leader's health and schedule," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Daily Beast regarding North Korean media reports showing Kim Jong-un alive and well (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international relations at Ewha University, cautioned that "all is not well inside North Korea" and Kim's rule has suffered from "unmet expectations" after "Kim's failed bid for sanctions relief, possible community spread of COVID-19, and negative economic effects from tightened border restrictions with China."
Quoted by Yonhap regarding attempts by North Korean media to dispel rumors of regime instability (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said North Korean media reports of Kim Jong- un making a site visit to a fertilizer factory "represent an attempt to signal he is alive and well."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding the uncertain status of Kim Jong- un (link):
"North Korea's secrecy and our lack of reliable information create a breeding ground for rumors," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "But his continued absence would be destabilizing as more people in and outside the country wonder if he is incapacitated or dead. While North Korea's neighbors are mired in domestic politics during a global pandemic, U.S.- China relations are tense, and international organizations are strained, the world isn't well prepared for the death of Kim Jong-un."
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Quoted by AFP regarding international concerns for Kim Jong-un's health (link):
"Kim's personal profile, family history, and the structure of the North Korean regime make his health a major variable for the country's stability and foreign policy," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told AFP.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding stalled inter-Korean relations on the second anniversary of the first Moon-Kim summit (link):
"The Panmunjom Declaration was a diplomatic achievement, but its two- year anniversary is marked by disappointment and concern. North Korea has shown little to no willingness for inter-Korean cooperation and now its capability is in doubt with the uncertainty surrounding Kim Jong-un," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang could clearly benefit from Seoul's humanitarian assistance. But the Kim regime has demanded larger economic benefits that are not possible as long as North Korea refuses to denuclearize to earn sanctions relief. So Pyongyang is likely to focus on its domestic politics and military capabilities."
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding debate over future successors in North Korea (link):
Other Kim family members who might take over include Kim Pyong Il, the 65-year-old half-brother of Kim Jong Il who reportedly returned home in November after decades in Europe as a diplomat. Kim Pyong Il's age "could make him a reasonable front man for collective leadership by the State Affairs Commission and regent for the preferred next generation successor," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "However, elite power dynamics and danger of instability might make this an unlikely option."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding the disappearance of Kim Jong-un from the public eye (link):
"We should remain very skeptical of rumors about North Korea's leadership," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Reports about North Korean palace politics are often wrong or only partially accurate. If these stories were just gossip about a photogenic royal family, probably they wouldn't matter much."
Quoted in the Independent regarding media speculation over Kim Jong- un's health (link):
Simply put, says Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul: "The North Korean system could not continue in its current ideological and institutional form without an adult male descendant of Kim Il-sung."
Quoted in the Guardian regarding Kim Yo-jong's role in North Korea (link):
"The North Korean regime is a family business, and Kim Jong-un appears to place trust in his sister," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "She has demonstrated skills at modernising the brand of the regime, and has some sway over state propaganda. Her most important function is probably as a confidante to her brother. But she also has a signalling role because messages from Kim Yo-jong carry more weight than those of an imminently replaceable North Korean official."
Quoted by VOA regarding North Korean missile tests on the eve of South Korea's elections (link):
"The North Koreans have a tendency of trying to interfere in South Korea's elections," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "This cycle, there has been less debate in Seoul about relations with Pyongyang because COVID-19 has taken up so much political bandwidth. The Kim regime, however, will not be ignored and may even be a bit annoyed about South Koreans practicing their democracy on [North Korean founder] Kim Il-sung's birthday," which is April 15, added Easley.
Quoted in the Independent regarding the likelihood of further North Korean missile tests (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said: "North Korean media have recently touted the country's 'peaceful outer space program,' which may portend a long-range missile test disguised as a satellite launch. The audacity of the Kim regime is such that it continues to test missiles in the midst of a public health crisis that is worsening the humanitarian situation inside North Korea and engrossing governments around the world."
Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times via AFP regarding the April meeting of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly (link):
North Korea "apparently wants to show its institutions are working and national safety is under control, while trying to lower public expectations about the economy by blaming the ongoing global pandemic," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told AFP.
Quoted in the Independent regarding possible interactions of COVID-19 and North Korean politics (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told the Independent that the possibility of a coronavirus outbreak had "increased North Korea's isolation and unpredictability." "There will be greater risk of military miscalculation if the North Korean army suffers extensive losses from the virus, or if Washington and Seoul's alliance readiness is degraded," he said. "Pyongyang could make a more aggressive provocation before elections in South Korea and the United States, either to deflect attention from its own weaknesses, or to take advantage of weaknesses it perceives among other governments that are focused on the coronavirus and domestic politics."
Quoted by Bloomberg regarding North Korea's fourth missile test during the COVID-19 crisis (link):
"North Korea's recent spate of launches is not as significant a provocation as if Kim Jong Un had rolled out the new 'strategic weapon' he promised at the beginning of the year," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Pyongyang may accept international assistance under the banner of 'global health cooperation' after Kim uses missile tests and propaganda about domestic 'anti-epidemic' measures to assert a position of political strength."
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Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding North Korea testing missiles with impunity (link):
"Not only does Pyongyang wish to avoid signs of weakness during the coronavirus crisis, it wants its people to believe that North Korea stands in a position of relative strength," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Kim can improve military capabilities...at little cost because international aid is unlikely to be canceled after these tests, China and Russia refuse to tighten sanctions, and the U.S. and South Korea are focused on defense cost-sharing negotiations and COVID-19."
Quoted in the Asia Times via AFP regarding North Korea's struggle with the novel coronavirus (link):
With the latest launch Pyongyang "continues an international strategy of trying to normalise its missile tests", Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told AFP. Despite North Korea insisting it does not have a single case of COVID-19, Pyongyang's "draconian restrictions on movement, mask-wearing propaganda, public punishment of 'corrupt' elites violating quarantine efforts, and rush to build medical facilities suggest COVID-19 has penetrated the country," Ewha University's Easley said. "Pyongyang is likely struggling with a coronavirus crisis on a national scale."
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding prospects for U.S.-South Korea cooperation with North Korea during the coronavirus outbreak (link):
"The Kim regime is still likely to limit the level of cooperation with Seoul and Washington because Pyongyang's price for improving diplomatic relations is much higher than humanitarian aid alone," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's strategy for dealing with COVID-19 at home and seeking concessions abroad (link):
"The coronavirus is likely exceeding North Korea's public health capacity, so Kim Jong-un is playing a two-level game. At the domestic level, his regime claims to protect the people with drastic quarantine measures and military exercises against external threats," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor at Seoul's Ewha Womans University. "Pyongyang may be seeking international assistance, but remains obsessed with not appearing in an inferior position to Seoul."
Quoted in the Daily Beast regarding North Korea's struggles with the novel coronavirus (link):
"The Kim regime is facing the costs of its strategic mistake of diverting so many national resources toward missiles and nuclear weapons and away from public health and infrastructure," says Leif-Eric Easley, professor at Ewha University in Seoul. The regime "has prioritized social control and displays of military strength over the lives and livelihoods of the people."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korea going on offense against coronavirus and its neighbors (link):
"North Korea's sharp rhetoric and military exercises last week might have been sufficient for domestic reassurance and an international show of strength," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "That the Kim regime conducts these further missile launches suggests it is not just guarding against its own weakness but is looking to exploit weaknesses its perceives among other countries during the coronavirus crisis." He added that amid South Korea's strained relations with China and Japan, and the delay of the South's joint military exercises with the U.S. due to COVID-19 concerns, North Korea may see an opening. "Pyongyang may be applying pressure not only because of its domestic difficulties with the virus, but because it calculates it can extract unearned concessions from other capitals."
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Quoted in Deutsche Welle regarding how North Korea is coping with the coronavirus threat (link):
"Given the current state of inter-Korean relations, Pyongyang would only request coronavirus assistance from Seoul if the situation became desperate," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "If the politics were better, North Korea might accept South Korean aid discreetly," he added. "The North is already quietly bringing in masks, disinfectants, medicines, and testing kits from China and international organizations. But the Kim regime...will likely blame external sources for infection and punish internal scapegoats for corruption and failing to carry out orders," he said. And Easley warns that the North's already inadequate public healthcare capabilities will be overwhelmed by a flare-up that is even a fraction of the scale of the outbreaks in China or South Korea. "North Korea takes such draconian measures as closing its borders and militarily enforcing quarantines to prevent COVID-19 contagion because the country does not have the public health capacity to deal with a major outbreak," he said. "Although Pyongyang's policies [for various disease outbreaks] differ in degree, they fit a pattern of playing up and reacting aggressively to external threats."
Quoted by VOA regarding inter-Korean relations during the coronavirus crisis (link):
"Recent military exercises and [Kim Jong-un's] sister's tough comments about South Korea could be intended to shore up domestic political strength before Pyongyang makes a quiet bid for international assistance," Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told VOA News. "Kim's letter to Moon may set up the claim that he offered assistance to Seoul first," Easley said. "Then, when North Korea accepts a bunch of masks and testing kits, his propaganda machine can call it a show of appreciation for Pyongyang's leadership in countering the virus."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding the timing and implications of North Korea's latest missile test (link):
North Korea "appears intent on raising the stakes before South Korea's April elections and before the Super Tuesday primaries of the U.S. presidential campaign," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "North Korea is making clear with these missile tests it will continue to improve military capabilities and make outsized demands, despite the political and public health preoccupations of Beijing, Seoul and Washington."
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Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding North Korea's first missile test of 2020 (link):
Monday's weapons launch "suggests that the Kim regime wants to demonstrate strength in the face of a worsening coronavirus outbreak and to demand concessions before the U.S. presidential election," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted by the BBC regarding Pyongyang's negative response to overtures by Seoul and Washington (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the tests seemed to be "less provocative than North Korea is capable of." Prof Easley added: "The US and South Korea postponing their drills and offering humanitarian assistance has earned no goodwill from a Kim regime that sees little benefit in restarting diplomacy."
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Quoted by CNN regarding North Korea applying pressure before elections in South Korea and the United States (link):
"The US and South Korea postponing their defense drills and offering humanitarian assistance has thus earned no goodwill from a Kim regime that sees little benefit in restarting diplomacy," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "Pyongyang instead appears intent on raising the stakes before South Korea's April elections and before the 'Super Tuesday' primaries of the US presidential campaign."
Quoted in the Independent regarding how North Korea and neighboring governments have their hands full with coronavirus contagion (link):
In the context of the virus outbreak, North Korea's latest military displays are likely to provoke less of a reaction than ever, argues Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "In the short-term, the worsening Covid-19 crisis will preoccupy all relevant governments, leaving little bandwidth for either military escalation or productive denuclearisation diplomacy," he said.
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Quoted in TIME regarding North Korea's response to COVID-19 (link):
"The Kim regime prioritizes projecting strength and controlling panic over protecting public health. It will thus underreport its coronavirus problem until a crisis is undeniable," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the New York Times regarding the economic and diplomatic implications of the COVID-19 threat to North Korea (link):
"North Korea is under increasing stress because of the coronavirus outbreak in China," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor in the international studies division at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The revenue stream Kim was anticipating from tourism is running dry and the informal economy is suffering from draconian border and travel restrictions. North Korea may be on lockdown now, but it will soon be in need of economic concessions. That raises the possibility that Pyongyang could return to diplomacy — or resume weapons tests to strengthen its negotiating hand."
Quoted in Al Jazeera regarding the state of U.S.-North Korea diplomacy a year after Trump and Kim met in Vietnam (link):
"The problem with the Hanoi summit was that it failed to achieve sanctions relief, and hence did not empower South Korea to offer sufficient carrots to keep engagement going," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Expecting no immediate benefits from diplomacy, North Korea returned to its cycle of stonewalling, threatening and provoking."
Quoted by VOA regarding opportunities for inter-Korean engagement (link):
"The Moon government is looking for any angle to engage North Korea that is both palatable to Pyongyang and possible under existing sanctions. This includes a proposed joint Olympics bid and restarting tourism on an individual basis," Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told VOA. "North Korea has a history of receptiveness to sports diplomacy and Kim Jong Un is betting on tourism as a new revenue stream."
Quoted by VOA regarding the implications of North Korea naming a new foreign minister (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, agrees that the new foreign minister's past experience and policy positions are "less important than what he is empowered to do by the Kim regime." "Will he be entrusted with restarting denuclearization talks with Washington and inter- Korean exchanges with Seoul? Or will it be his job to stonewall [U.S. Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo and [U.S. North Korea envoy Stephen] Biegun while overseeing a pressure campaign including the demolition of South Korean-built tourism facilities at Mt. Kumgang? Recent signs from North Korea are not encouraging," Easley said.
Quoted by VOA regarding the implications of North Korea naming a new foreign minister (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, agrees that the new foreign minister's past experience and policy positions are "less important than what he is empowered to do by the Kim regime." "Will he be entrusted with restarting denuclearization talks with Washington and inter- Korean exchanges with Seoul? Or will it be his job to stonewall [U.S. Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo and [U.S. North Korea envoy Stephen] Biegun while overseeing a pressure campaign including the demolition of South Korean-built tourism facilities at Mt. Kumgang? Recent signs from North Korea are not encouraging," Easley said.
Quoted by Yonhap regarding North Korea replacing its foreign minister and several other top officials (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said it would be too simplistic to characterize North Korea's new diplomatic line-up as more hawkish and what can be surmised is recognition by Kim that last year's approach didn't work. "It may be optimistic to say this represents a diplomatic opening for South Korea and the United States, but for now, a shake-up of personnel by North Korea appears less provocative than displaying a new strategic weapon," he said.
Quoted in the Korea Times regarding inter-Korean engagement options (link):
"Exploring individual South Korean visits makes sense as an effort to open the door to further inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation. North Korea wants to grow its tourism sector and Seoul is concerned about the fate of facilities at Mount Geumgang. [Moon administration officials have sought U.S. agreement that such trips would not violate sanctions.] But the biggest obstacle is actually Pyongyang. Individual South Korean tourists may not represent a large enough carrot to make North Korea bite," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding changes in North Korea's economic situation (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, sums up Kim's economic assets and liabilities. "The North Korean economy is experiencing structural change, new consumer options and greater competition, and with the help of certain entities in other countries, the North Koreans are getting better at sanctions evasion," he told Asia Times. "But sanctions are impeding growth and skewing the economy. The regime appears concerned about the consequences and – judging from renewed rhetoric about belt-tightening and self-reliance – may be struggling with how to manage public expectations."
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding the consequences North Korea may face if it continues to escalate rhetoric and military tests (link):
"If North Korea insists on a cycle of provocations, it risks redoubled military exercises by the US and its allies, additional economic sanctions, and an international information campaign to delegitimize the Kim regime," Leif- Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said. "Moreover, Chinese and Russian entities that help North Korea evade sanctions will themselves be subject to sanctions."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding constraints North Korea faces in economic, security and foreign policy (link):
"Kim's long buildup to his New Year message has inadvertently made North Korea look constrained," said Prof. Leif-Eric Easley at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "He tries to use China and Russia for financial benefit, but doesn't want to appear dependent or beholden. He pushes his military engineers to develop more sophisticated weapons, but has to consider the risks of tests failing. He wants to increase diplomatic pressure on South Korea and the United States, but knows a major provocation is likely to bring more sanctions upon his regime."
Quoted by VOA regarding North Korean efforts to project confidence, endurance and strength (link):
"Kim asserts that North Korea's military strength is more than a match for 'external hostile policies' and that the country is on a path of economic development based on indigenous ideas and capabilities," says Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "He wants the U.S. to negotiate with North Korea as if it were a full-fledged, responsible nuclear power."
Quoted by ABC News regarding North Korea's strategy at the start of 2020 (link):
"North Korea's new 'strategic weapon' might not be ready," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. "For now, North Korea may focus on sanctions evasion rather than sanctions relief, and replace denuclearization diplomacy with strategic deterrence and nuclear blackmail."
Quoted in the Financial Times via AFP regarding Kim Jong-un's suggestion that North Korea is no longer bound by a self-imposed freeze on nuclear and long-range missile tests (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that Mr Kim was trying to buy time with his nuclear blackmail. "Kim looks to elicit concessions by approaching Trump's red line without crossing it."
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Quoted by AFP regarding Kim Jong-un giving remarks at a Central Committee meeting rather than a traditional New Year speech (link):
The move may have been intended to soften the message, added Professor Leif-Eric Easley at Ewha Woman's University in Seoul. "By giving domestic facing remarks at a party meeting, Kim could strike an assertive tone without looking as belligerent had he made nuclear threats in a stand alone address," said Prof Easley.
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Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding the domestic politics of North Korean foreign policy (link):
"The Central Committee plenary meeting is meant to legitimize the process behind the policy decisions Kim Jong-un will announce in his New Year speech," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "This meeting is to provide political justification for the economic and security policies Pyongyang will pursue in 2020."
Quoted in the Daily Beast regarding speculation over North Korea's year-end deadline (link):
"The 'will-he-or-won't he' about a long-range missile test is an asymmetric tactic," said Leif Eric-Easley at Seoul's Ewha University. All the waiting, he said, provides "a window of opportunity first to raise tensions, then to receive unearned concessions for deescalating a crisis. The current international obsession over Kim's next move is exactly what he wants."
Quoted by AFP regarding North Korea's diplomatic strategy for 2020 (link):
"The Central Committee plenary meeting is meant to legitimize the process behind the policy decisions Kim Jong-un will announce in his New Year speech," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "This meeting is to provide political justification for the economic and security policies Pyongyang will pursue in 2020."
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Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding the year-end plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party in North Korea (link):
Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University called the party conference "political theatre for both domestic and international consumption. Kim wants to appear strategic rather than tactical, proactive rather than reactive, and calculating rather than capricious," he said. But the world should remain united to "disabuse the Kim regime of the notion that it can win economic benefits and weaken US alliances while holding on to its nuclear weapons, missiles and aggressive military tests and exercises".
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Quoted in the South China Morning Post's review of Asia in 2019 (link):
After Pyongyang set an end-of-year deadline for Washington to propose a new denuclearisation deal or expect a "Christmas gift," 2019 finished on a bleak note for prospects of North Korean denuclearisation. "Now we are on the cusp of returning in 2020 to the heightened tensions of 2017 because Pyongyang rejects substantive diplomacy and demands rewards for merely abstaining from provocations," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Singapore Straits Times regarding prospects for U.S.-North Korea relations (link):
It remains to be seen what "Christmas gift" North Korea will send the US, according to a cryptic warning issued by Pyongyang earlier this month. But international studies professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University said it is still possible to reach an interim deal if North Korea returns to working-level talks with the US.
Quoted in the JoongAng Daily regarding Pyongyang's calculus around a possible ICBM test (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, downplayed the chance of a major test happening in the remainder of this year. "North Korea would anger China by conducting a major test while [Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe and [South Korean President] Moon [Jae-in] are in Chengdu for a trilateral summit," he said. Easley predicted the North will eventually carry out a test at "some point" down the road to demonstrate and develop its military capabilities, but noted that technically challenging tests can fail, which is why the regime would not want to risk a test before Kim's New Year speech.
Quoted by VOA regarding North Korea's timeline for provocations and diplomacy (link):
"Kim Jong-un's year-end deadline is an artificial one, so its expiration does not have to lead to escalation unless he wants it to," says Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "North Korea does not have domestic audience costs like a democracy, nor does it have an international reputation for upholding commitments. But the Kim regime does face performance legitimacy pressures to achieve economic development. So there is a time dimension for the goal of achieving sanctions relief. Pyongyang wants to be immediately rewarded for what it considers good behavior over the past two years," Easley says.
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Quoted by Yonhap regarding North Korea's second test at Sohae in a week (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said the North Koreans clearly want international observers to believe that these tests at Sohae will improve the range, accuracy and survivability of their long-range missiles. "This suggests they want the world to recognize their claimed nuclear deterrent rather than cling to the idea of denuclearization," he said.
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Quoted in the New York Times regarding North Korea's test at its Sohae satellite launch site (link):
"North Korea is avoiding violations of its long-range missile test moratorium for now, but it is still improving the propulsion and precision of its missiles so that it can claim a credible nuclear deterrent," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The Kim regime knows that U.S. surveillance flights and satellites are watching. So with the activity at Sohae, Pyongyang is also trying to raise international concerns that it may intensify provocations and walk away from denuclearization talks next year."
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Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding North Korea's motives for missile-related tests (link):
"Such testing is meant to improve military capabilities and to shore up domestic pride and legitimacy," Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said of Saturday's test. "North Korea is avoiding violations of its long-range missile test moratorium for now, but it is still improving the propulsion and precision of its missiles so that it can claim a credible nuclear deterrent," he said.
Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding Pyongyang's political signaling with military tests (link):
Saturday's test "is meant to improve military capabilities and to shore up domestic pride and legitimacy," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "With the activity at Sohae, Pyongyang is also trying to raise international concerns that it may intensify provocations and walk away from denuclearization talks next year."
Quoted in VOA regarding prospects for 'ping-pong diplomacy' between North and South Korea (link):
"South Korea's approach is to engage on all fronts while upholding economic sanctions on North Korea that endure for lack of denuclearization," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Sports diplomacy is a useful tool, but ping-pong alone is unlikely to make a breakthrough with Pyongyang. The Kim regime has nearly frozen inter-Korean exchanges, and while Seoul still looks to provide enticements, North Korea should be held accountable for failing to meet its commitments."
Quoted in VOA regarding the need for working-level talks on North Korea's denuclearization (link):
"North Korean officials have long complained about a so-called U.S. 'hostile policy' toward the DPRK. Now they are combining Kim's artificial year-end deadline for a new U.S. approach with a demand that the 'hostile policy' must be dropped before denuclearization talks can continue. This reflects North Korea's muddled strategy and lack of seriousness about denuclearization," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang should return to working-level talks and specify the exact policies it wants removed in exchange for denuclearization progress," Easley said.
Quoted in VOA regarding the need for working-level talks on North Korea's denuclearization (link):
"North Korean officials have long complained about a so-called U.S. 'hostile policy' toward the DPRK. Now they are combining Kim's artificial year-end deadline for a new U.S. approach with a demand that the 'hostile policy' must be dropped before denuclearization talks can continue. This reflects North Korea's muddled strategy and lack of seriousness about denuclearization," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Pyongyang should return to working-level talks and specify the exact policies it wants removed in exchange for denuclearization progress," Easley said.
Quoted by Yonhap regarding the risks North Korea is taking by raising pressure rather than returning to diplomacy (link):
"Combining the year-end deadline with a demand that Washington's 'hostile' policy must be dropped before denuclearization talks can continue reflects Pyongyang's muddled strategy and lack of seriousness about denuclearization, said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "If North Korea returns to a cycle of provocations, it risks redoubled military exercises by the U.S. and its allies, additional economic sanctions, and an international information campaign to delegitimize the Kim regime," the professor added.
Quoted in the Atlantic regarding North Korea's resistance to diplomacy (link):
The Kim regime "now considers summits without payment for cooperation as empty diplomacy that merely helps Trump raise domestic political support," Leif-Eric Easley, a Korea expert at Ewha Womans University, in Seoul, told me. It's ironically the mirror-image argument to what Trump's critics contended when he became the first American president to meet with North Korea's dictator: that it would grant Kim valuable legitimacy while leaving the United States with nothing of substance to show for it.
Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding North Korea's rocket test on American Thanksgiving (link):
"Today's launch fit a North Korean pattern of escalating pressure on Washington and Seoul ahead of Kim Jong-un's year-end deadline," said Leif-Eric Easley, who teaches international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
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Quoted by VOA regarding North Korea's efforts to win concessions from Washington and Seoul (link):
Though the state media coverage of Kim's horse ride was widely mocked on social media, analysts say the move was designed to both prepare Kim's domestic and international audiences that there are dangerous times ahead. "The North Korean leader does not ride a white horse to the top of Baekdu Mountain because he is satisfied with the status quo," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. North Korea may now use [threats of] nuclear and ICBM tests as leverage in an attempt to extract concessions before the 2020 U.S. election, said Easley. "Pyongyang wants sanctions relief without giving up its weapons, so why not create a crisis and get paid to de-escalate it?" he said.
Quoted in the New York Times, Washington Post and Los Angeles Times via AP regarding North Korea's strategy of increasing pressure on South Korea and the United States (link):
"The North Korean leader does not ride a white horse to the top of Paektu Mountain because he is satisfied with the status quo," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Kim's year-end threat is as much a deadline for economic progress as it is a diplomatic ultimatum," Easley said. "This is why Pyongyang is increasing pressure on Seoul and Washington in the form of announcing plans to bulldoze even stalled inter-Korean projects, such as at Mount Kumgang, while continuing provocative missile tests."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korea's latest missile test (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said [some observers believe North Korea's strategy is] to avoid making concessions in working-level talks, and if no summit with unearned rewards is on offer, to merely wait out the 2020 U.S. presidential election to then deal with a re- elected Trump or a new Democratic president. "This would make sense if Kim Jong Un was satisfied with reputational gains from diplomacy since Singapore, increasingly leaky sanctions, and advancing military capabilities under the threshold of nuclear and ICBM tests," Easley said. But Easley said Kim Jong Un was unlikely to be satisfied with the status quo. "Domestic pressures are likely such that Kim's year-end threat is as much a deadline for economic progress as it is a diplomatic ultimatum. This is why Pyongyang is increasing pressure on Seoul and Washington while continuing provocative missile tests."
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Quoted in Nikkei regarding North Korea's artificial limitations on relations with the South (link):
"Pyongyang has already attempted to shut the Moon government out of inter-Korean affairs to show its displeasure with enduring international sanctions," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Quoted in the Atlantic regarding U.S.-North Korea talks in Sweden (link):
The setting was, relative to the atmosphere surrounding Trump's summits with Kim, dull by design—a location "meant to avoid symbolism and distraction so the teams can focus on the content of negotiations," Leif-Eric Easley, a Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, explained as the proceedings got under way. [Afterwards, Easley said that] "rather than the breakdown of talks, what we are seeing resembles classic North Korean negotiating tactics: demand more concessions, minimize denuclearization commitments, and figure out how to cheat. Kim Myong Gil does not have authority to compromise on anything until approved by Kim Jong Un. He probably went to Stockholm with talking points and instructions to receive the updated U.S. position before walking out to buy time and apply pressure."
Quoted by Yonhap regarding North Korean tactics in working-level talks (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said it is unlikely that Kim Myong-gil went to Sweden authorized to compromise on anything. "Most likely, his orders were to learn about any new U.S. proposals, then express dissatisfaction to buy time and build pressure," he said.
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding the North Korean claim of breakdown in talks with the United States (link):
"The Americans came to the [Stockholm] meeting with new ideas about what benefits to offer and how to sequence them with North Korea in exchange for concrete steps toward denuclearisation. But Pyongyang's common negotiating tactic is to demand unearned concessions based on what it says it has done already, and then threaten to walk away," said Leif- Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "The North Koreans will likely take more time and engage in posturing, but what they are actually doing is returning to their capital, considering US proposals, and waiting to receive direction from their leadership," he added.
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Quoted in the South China Morning Post regarding North Korea's submarine and missile technology (link):
"Kim wants to increase the image of strong leadership domestically and the credibility of a nuclear deterrent internationally," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international relations at Ewha University in Seoul. "North Korea's submarine-based missile ambitions may currently be more politics than operational reality, but the same was said about its long-range missiles two decades ago," Easley said. "We ignore these developments at our peril."
Quoted in Der Spiegel regarding the timing of North Korea's missile test and return to talks (link):
"The timing [of North Korea's SLBM test] suggests that Pyongyang wants to return to nuclear talks from a position of strength," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul...Bolton's dismissal and an impeachment inquiry against Trump could lead North Korea to believe that the US president is more willing to make a "deal" than before, so Ewha professor Easley assesses that "Pyongyang now sees its chance."
Quoted by Reuters regarding challenges to diplomacy with North Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said: "While pursuing diplomacy, it is necessary to remain clear-eyed about North Korea's continued provocations and lack of denuclearization. North Korea tends to raise the stakes before negotiations in an effort to win unearned concessions."
Quoted in the Financial Times regarding North Korea's negotiating strategy (link):
"Pyongyang is signalling that the upcoming negotiations are not going to be easy. After boycotting working-level talks for months, the North Koreans do not plan to show up with concessions. They are demanding the US come to the table offering more than it did in Hanoi," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding North Korea testing missiles before returning to diplomacy (link):
Pyongyang's most-recent launch is a provocation with a message for Washington ahead of the resumption of working-level negotiations, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "The timing of North Korea's tests is a statement that it is not being pressured into talks but intends to negotiate from a position of strength," Mr. Easley said.
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Quoted in the Washington Post regarding Pyongyang's decision to return to nuclear negotiations (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said the removal of John Bolton as White House national security adviser last month might have encouraged North Korea to think it could win sanctions relief by making a deal with Trump. Bolton had consistently held a hard line on North Korea. In return, Easley said, Pyongyang might offer concessions, such as an unverifiable freeze on nuclear weapons production, that Trump could present as a symbolic victory. "With Bolton out of the administration and the U.S. Congress talking impeachment, Pyongyang sees an opportunity," Easley said.
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Quoted by UPI regarding the value of pursuing diplomacy with North Korea (link):
"Trying to secure actual denuclearization steps through diplomacy with Pyongyang is a worthy endeavor, especially if talks help extend a moratorium on North Korean asymmetric attacks and nuclear and long- range missile tests," Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, told UPI. "But final, fully verified denuclearization remains a distant goal."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korean intentions in offering talks and testing missiles (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said there were two views about the spate of recent launches. "Optimists will see North Korea's latest projectile tests as what Pyongyang needed to get out of the way to satisfy military hard-liners and weapons scientists before working- level talks resume," Easley said. However, he added, "pessimists will argue that the Kim regime is increasing pressure for concessions on sanctions, and is trying to 'decouple' Washington from its allies in Seoul and Tokyo by seeking the Trump administration's de facto acceptance of North Korea's enhanced missile capabilities."
Quoted in the Wall Street Journal regarding North Korea's latest missile test after South Korea cancelled an intelligence sharing agreement with Japan (link):
"The Kim regime must be happy with those developments, but continues its threatening weapons tests because North Korean good behavior isn't cheap and never free," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding Pyongyang flouting inter-Korean agreements (link):
"North Korea makes it exceedingly difficult to build trust when it interprets restraint as weakness and looks to exploit divisions within South Korea," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. Seoul and Washington should continue to seek working-level talks with North Korea but the allies should also prepare new sanctions and renewed military cooperation if Pyongyang continues to violate United Nations resolutions and threaten its neighbors, Easley said.
Quoted in the Asia Times regarding North Korea exploiting political divisions in the South (link):
"Because of the sanctions regime, there does not seem to be much that Kim wants from Seoul that Moon can readily provide," Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said. "North Korea thus aims to stoke ideological divisions in the south and separate Seoul from its partners in Washington and Tokyo."
Quoted in the Japan Times regarding North Korean rhetoric against U.S.- ROK exercises (link):
"Seoul and Washington have held back on further sanctions but Pyongyang tests sanctions-violating missiles," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "South Korea and the United States adjusted defensive exercises to increase space for diplomacy, but North Korea demands a full stop to the drills in an effort to degrade alliance readiness, interoperability, and cohesion."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding Kim Jong-un's strategy of engaging President Trump (link):
"Breaking the alliance is exactly what Pyongyang wants, which is why it makes all this noise and tries to blame U.S.-South Korea drills for its lack of cooperation," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Kim appeals to Trump directly about the exercises, trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul."
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Quoted in the Washington Post via AP regarding North Korea's ongoing tests (link):
"Breaking the alliance is exactly what Pyongyang wants, which is why it makes all this noise and tries to blame U.S.-South Korea drills for its lack of cooperation," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "Kim appeals to Trump directly about the exercises, trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul."
Quoted by Agence France Presse regarding North Korean complaints about U.S.-South Korean exercises (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said that Kim had used personal appeals to Trump blaming the tests on the joint military exercises hoping to drive a wedge between Washington and South Korea. "Breaking the alliance is exactly what Pyongyang wants, which is why it makes all this noise," Easley said.
Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding North Korean reactions to U.S.-ROK exercises (link):
"South Korea and the United States have downscaled, refocused, rescheduled and quietly conducted their combined exercises to allow space for diplomacy with North Korea," said Leif-Eric Easley, who teaches international security at Ewha University in Seoul. "But Pyongyang shows no appreciation for this, keeping its own exercise schedule unchanged, conducting provocative weapons tests, and dialing up its rhetoric."
Quoted in the New York Times via Reuters regarding further DPRK test launches (link):
Kim's government was assiduously improving military capabilities as well as signaling negotiating demands, said Leif-Eric Easley, an international relations expert at Seoul's Ewha University. "The aim is not only to increase Pyongyang's ability to coerce its neighbors, another goal is to normalize North Korea's sanctions-violating tests as if they were as legitimate as South Korea's defensive exercises."
Quoted in the Washington Post regarding challenges posed by North Korea's missiles (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said it was not appropriate to shrug off the tests as "short-range." "These missiles represent technological developments that threaten U.S. allies and forces in Asia," he said. "These tests also reflect North Korean dissatisfaction with the current terms of diplomatic engagement."
Quoted in the New York Times regarding DPRK motivations for firing missiles (link):
North Korea appears to have timed its latest tests to apply political pressure on the United States and South Korea in future negotiations, said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Woman's University in Seoul. But North Korea also "tests weapons to maintain and improve its military capabilities while addressing domestic political legitimacy concerns through shows of strength," Mr. Easley said. "North Korea continues its development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, including missiles and submarines."
Quoted by VOA on North Korea's latest missile tests (link):
"The Kim regime likely times these tests for international signaling purposes, applying political pressure on the U.S. and South Korea in an effort to get more for less in future negotiations," says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "This raises questions about North Korean intentions," Easley says. "Kim's plan appears to be keeping his country relatively closed and nuclear armed, while pocketing any political or economic benefits on offer."
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Quoted in the Financial Times regarding Kim Jong-un's 'performance legitimacy' challenge (link):
"Kim needs to deliver sanctions relief for his economy...the coverage by North Korean media of the latest Trump-Kim meeting may give Kim a short- term propaganda victory but will increase performance legitimacy pressures in the medium to long-term," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted in the Daily Beast regarding Kim Jong-un's 'performance legitimacy' challenges after summit diplomacy (link):
"Kim will face increasing domestic expectations for economic growth," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, "but benefiting from international trade will require denuclearization and rule of law."
Quoted in the South China Morning Post on North Korea's lack of denuclearization and the necessity of a mutually-recognized endpoint for the denuclearization process (link):
"The fundamental issue a year after [the Singapore summit] is North Korea not denuclearising," said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of International Security and Political Economics at Ewha University in Seoul. "Progress on inter-Korean relations and denuclearisation requires that the Kim regime agrees to working-level talks to negotiate next steps," Easley said. "Most eyes will be on the summit meetings, but a key indicator of progress is whether North Korean counterparts meet with US Special Representative Stephen Biegun. "Biegun has signalled flexibility on the timing and sequencing of steps, but North Korean working-level officials need to be empowered to negotiate, and the agreed upon endpoint has to be complete – not partial or merely cosmetic – denuclearisation," he said.
Quoted in the South China Morning Post regarding the possible focus of working-level talks with North Korea (link):
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international security and political economics at Ewha University in Seoul, said a deal based on the verified dismantlement of Yongbyon's plutonium and uranium facilities could be a "workable compromise to earn North Korea sanctions relief." "All parties would have to agree that denuclearisation does not stop there but will proceed to address North Korea's other nuclear and delivery capabilities," Easley said, noting that Seoul may also resume economic engagement in the North. "Coaxing Trump and Kim together is not sufficient for South Korean interests," he said. "Sanctions waivers for inter-Korean projects plus some UN sanctions relief...are possible if North Korea accepts international inspectors to verify an end to fissile material production."
Quoted in VOA regarding prospects for a third Trump-Kim summit (link):
Neither side has publicly softened their stance. And with working level talks stalled, it's not clear what another Trump-Kim summit could accomplish, says Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Absent working-level negotiations for a verifiable freeze in fissile material production, further summits with Kim run the risk of appearing to accept North Korea as a nuclear state and normalizing its sanctions violating behavior...The hypothesis that a 'top-down approach' can realize denuclearization has been tested," says Easley. "North Korea has more nuclear capabilities today than it did a year ago."
Quoted in the Daily Beast regarding the Trump-Kim exchange of letters before the G20 (link):
"Kim is determined to exploit U.S.-China rivalry to benefit his economy while Trump hopes to leverage his personal relationship with Kim toward North Korea's denuclearization," says Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Woman's University here in Seoul. "That's why we see this movement before Trump visits Asia and meets Xi at the G20. The Trump-Moon summit immediately afterwards will allow the allies to project a coordinated policy for advancing both denuclearization and peace with North Korea."
Quoted in the Korea Herald regarding implementation of sanctions on North Korea (link):
"Pyongyang's aim has been to break the maximum pressure campaign by encouraging Beijing to move from active implementation to minimum compliance with UN sanctions," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Quoted by VOA on North Korean commentary about next year's U.S. presidential election (link):
"It is not unusual for North Korean state media to lash out at international leaders who criticize a ruling Kim family member by name. What is interesting this time is that the North Koreans may be attacking who they figure is Trump's main domestic rival to curry favor with the president. Their strategy seems to be avoiding substantive working-level negotiations and trying again to secure sanctions relief for merely cosmetic denuclearization at a third Trump-Kim summit."
Quoted in the Washington Post regarding North Korea's missiles (link):
Just days before Thursday's test, Moon secured President Trump's approval to begin sending food aid to North Korea. South Korea also dispatched its unification minister on Wednesday to a joint liaison office in North Korea in an attempt to restart dialogue, noted Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "For the Kim regime to test more projectiles on May 9 suggests it is not just making a show of strength for domestic politics; it is signaling that Pyongyang is not interested in the engagement currently on offer from Seoul or in working- level denuclearization talks with Washington."
Quoted by Reuters regarding North Korea's strategy (link):
"The Kim regime is determined to fight pressure with pressure," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "It is threatening to raise regional tensions and create political problems for Moon and Trump if not offered economic concessions it failed to win in Hanoi."
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Quoted in the Atlantic about the dangers of unintended escalation by North Korea (link):
Just days before Thursday's test, Moon secured President Trump's approval to begin sending food aid to North Korea. South Korea also dispatched its unification minister on Wednesday to a joint liaison office in North Korea in an attempt to restart dialogue, noted Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "For the Kim regime to test more projectiles on May 9 suggests it is not just making a show of strength for domestic politics; it is signaling that Pyongyang is not interested in the engagement currently on offer from Seoul or in working- level denuclearization talks with Washington."
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